Saturday, February 9, 2008

Risk Management, Science & Denial


Dr Gideon Polya

These are the notes provided pro bono publico for a course given to the Yarra Valley U3A, Semester 1, 2008

Eight 2 hour sessions beginning Tuesday 5 February, 2008; 10-12 am, U3A Office, Burgundy Street, Heidelberg

The 8 sessions of this University of the Third Age course will cover 8 major topics as outlined below:












i. Rational Risk Management (RRM). Rational Risk Management (RRM) successively involves (a) getting accurate data, (b) scientific analysis (science involving the critical testing of potentially falsifiable hypotheses) and (c) systemic change, involving setting up systems such that when Nature or fallible humans inevitably cause a dangerous situation the system is better able to minimize risk.

ii. Spin and perverted RRM. All too prevalent “spin” and “politicized” responses in society pervert RRM by (a) lies, slies (spin-based untruths), censorship, intimidation, self-censorship, white-washing, (b) anti-science spin involving the use of selected asserted “facts” to support a partisan position, and (c) “blame and shame”, picking convenient culprits for public punishment, thereby inhibiting reportage (war being the ultimate expression of this perverted approach).

iii. Avoidable mortality. Excess death (avoidable mortality) and other measures of undesirable outcome (e.g. under-5 infant mortality) can be used to measure the success or otherwise of local, national or global policies. For a country in a given period, excess death (avoidable death, avoidable mortality, excess mortality, deaths that should not have happened) is the difference between the actual deaths in a country and the deaths expected for a peaceful, decently governed country with the same demographics.

iv. RRM examples. Key examples of RRM to be considered include James Reasons’ Swiss Cheese Model for RRM ; aviation; nuclear industry; heavy industry; defence (war-making); hospitals.

v. Perverted RRM examples. Key examples of perverted RRM to be considered include:

1. 9/11 and who did 9/11? (Bush Administration censorship, secrecy and “official story” that violates science; Scholars for 9/11 truth (see: ) : “official story” inconsistent with facts that point to “explosive demolition” and hence active or passive US complicity; Al Gore: Bush Administration’s “reckless disregard for safety of the American people”; former president of Italy Francesco Cossiga: US CIA and Israeli Mossad did 9/11 to promote US hegemony and Zionist interests and Western intelligence agencies know it) (see “Were US & Israel behind the 9/11?”: ) ;

2. Iraq War and the Iraqi Genocide (no Iraqi involvement in 9/11; 953 pre-invasion lies; post-invasion excess deaths 1.5-2 million; under-5 infant deaths 0.6 million; refugees 4.5 million);

3. Afghan War and the Afghan Genocide (no Afghans involved in 9/11; post-invasion excess deaths 3-6 million; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths 2.3 million; refugees 4 million);

4. Muslim-origin non-state terrorism (7,000 Western civilians murdered in 40 years, including Israelis and 9/11 victims – but see point #1; US supported Latin American terrorists, Al Qaeda, Taliban) versus US, UK, French, and Israeli state terrorism (1950-2005 excess deaths in countries partially occupied by US post-1945 total 82 million, 727 million for UK, 142 million for France, 24 million for Israel);

5. Occupation and Palestinian Genocide (post-invasion excess deaths 0.3 million; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths 0.2 million; 2,400 avoidable infant deaths annually; 7 million refugees; 80% of Holy Land civilian homicides by Jewish Israelis);

6. Torture (evil and futile; widespread US Alliance use; rendition; Australian complicity in US torture of Australians);

7. Smoking (5 million smoking-related deaths annually, about 20,000 in Australia, 0.3 million, the US; risk definitely and authoritatively known for 50 years);

8. Alcohol (about 2 million deaths annually, aetiology and risks known for centuries);

9. Cars (annual deaths: ca 0.4 million globally; 30,000 US, 2,000 Australia; “true cost” ignored in free public transport arguments);

10. Custodial punishment (rehabilitation versus punishment; genetic and violent nurture predisposition – should people be punished or rehabilitated for genetic or nurture defects?);

11. Indigenous health and welfare (horrendous 9,000 avoidable Indigenous deaths annually; 90,000 under 11 years of Coalition Government; “annual death rate” 2.2%, 2.4% in NT versus 0.07% (Singapore under-5 year old infants), 0.1% (White Australian infants), 0.4% (what it should be for Indigenous Australians), 0.7% (for White Australians, world’s best), 2.5% (sheep), 2.7% (Occupied Iraqi infants), 6.7% (Occupied Afghan infants), 10% (Australian POWs of the Japanese), 17% ( Jews in Nazi-occupied Europe, 1941-1945).

12. Illicit drugs (0.2 million drug-related deaths annually, half due to opiates; 6 years x 0.1 million deaths/year = 0.6 million post-2001 opiate drugs deaths, about 90% (0.5 million) due to US restoration of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry from 5% of world market share in 2001 to 93% in 2007; post-invasion opiate drug deaths 3,000 UK, 3,000 Canada, 1,500 Australia, 50,000 US).

13. avoidable American under-5 infant deaths (20,000 annually, 160,000 under Bush administration; calculation: “annual under-5 infant death rate” 0.07% Singapore, 0.17% Cuba and US, US avoidable deathrate 0.1%, 20 million under-5 year old Americans gives 20,000 avoidable infant deaths annually).

14. US Gun deaths (about 30,000 annually; 8 x 30,000 = 240,000 US Gun-related deaths under the pro-Gun Bush Administration).

15. Global avoidable mortality (16 million avoidable deaths annually; 9.5 million avoidable under-5 infant deaths).

16. Avoidable hospital deaths (in Australia about 20,000 annual avoidable hospital deaths; vertical versus horizontal hierarchy; Swiss Cheese model of systems to minimize harm when inevitably people make mistakes; reportage vital; honesty vital; blame and shame generally counterproductive except in extraordinary situations).

17. Australian approximate annual avoidable deaths: 20,000 from smoking 20,000 from diet; 20,000 from hospital mistakes; 2,000 from cars; 300 from opiates mainly due to Bush-ite and neo-Bush-ite protection of the Afghan opium industry).

18. Global warming (the BIG ONE in a mounting Climate emergency - see later; mounting problem for “home alone” elderly e.g. 15,000 people died in the 2003 French heat wave, elderly switch off heat stress warning too early; over 6 billion may perish this century according to Professor James Lovelock FRS).

vi. SOLUTIONS. The class will discuss solutions e.g. public education; insistence on correct RRM; zero tolerance for incompetent or dishonest RRM; class action or individual (criminal use of taxes for illegal wars, smoking, opiates, climate change).


i. Introduction – qualitative & quantitative

In assessing Reality we can have a qualitative assessment (e.g. beauty, uniqueness) or quantitatively (how much how many).

In assessing the likelihood of something happening we can consider the actual frequency of occurrence e.g. by tossing coins, estimating theoretical probability of heads (50%, 0.5) and empirical probability (from experiment); we can do a “number of experiments” versus “% heads obtained” and from the resulting “normal distribution” (bell-shaped curve) data obtain the mean (average result from all the data), median (the middle outcome in a series of outcomes e.g. the median of 0, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7 and 8 is 4; the mean is 45/10 = 4.5), the standard deviation (SD, σ; 68% of observations fall within 1 SD of the mean i.e. between μ-σ and μ+ σ), and perform statistical tests (Chi squared test, student’s t-test, consider null hypotheses, probability statements, confidence limits).

We can quantitate some risks from empirical probabilities (i.e. from measurements of the actual incidence of such events in a given population in a given time e.g. annual probability of dying from shark attack, homicide, smoking, car accident, dying otherwise, or death from non-state “terrorism”; nuclear, greenhouse and poverty threats.

ii. Quantitating risk

We quantitatively predict outcomes by assessing the parameter “probability” (P, likelihood).

For “coin tossing” we can calculate that P(heads) = 0.5 = 50%.

We can also determine the “empirical probability” of “heads” by tossing enough coins and finding that in the end roughly 50% will be heads.

However if we perform a number of such experiments you will get different numbers of “% heads” in each experiment because coin tossing is a random process. We can plot the results of these experiments as follows:

Number of experiments

% “heads” for the experiment

This plot is called a “normal distribution” (other types of distributions are also found for other data sets).

We define the mean (μ) and the “standard deviation” (SD, σ). 68% of observations fall within 1 SD of the mean (i.e. between μ-σ and μ+ σ), 95% of observations fall between 2 SDs on either side of the mean and 99.7% of observations fall within 3 SDs either side of the mean.

iii. Statistical tests

We could, for example, collect data on “age of death” for cigarette smokers and non-smokers.

The data might look like this:

Number (n)

Age at death (years)

Statistical tests (Chi squared test, student’s t-test etc) can be applied to such data to determine (with the help of Statistical Tables) the Probability (P) that the difference between the 2 mean values of “age at death” for smokers and non-smokers is not simply due to chance e.g. we might find that P<0.05>

iv. Some risks and empirical probabilities

Here are some risk estimates expressed as “annual death rate” (%, percentage, how many out of a group of 100 Australians will die in a year) as determined from actual data and numerically the same as the Probability that an Australian will die within Australia from such a cause in a year: from Muslim-origin non-state terrorism , electrocution or shark attack (0.0001% = 1/1,000,000), from a family member or acquaintance (0.001% = 1/100,000), from a car accident (0.01% = 1/10,000), from smoking (0.1% = 1/1,000), from natural causes (0.7% = 1/143).

Here are some topical Australian statistics expressed as “annual death rate” = “annual probability of death in the group, expressed as a %”: 2.2% (Indigenous Australians), 2.4% (Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory), 0.4% (what it should be for a high birth rate community), 0.7% (White Australians), 2.5% (pre-drought Australian sheep), 2.7% (under-5 year old infants in Australian-Occupied Iraq), 5.7% (under-5 year old infants in Australian-occupied Afghanistan), 10% (Australian POWs of the Japanese in WW2) – shocking figures that are NOT reported in Mainstream media nor by politicians and which point to a major Risk Factor in our society, specifically that of entrenched Lying by Omission by Bush-ite and neo-Bush-ite Mainstream politicians and media.

Australian newspapers will give very precise probabilities each day in relation to horses or dogs winning races but will simply NOT report these crucial mortality statistics/death probabilities.

v. Quantitating nuclear, greenhouse & poverty threats

Dr John Holdren, President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) recently identified nuclear weapons, global warming and poverty as the three most acute threats facing humanity (and indeed inspired presentation of this course).

The empirical annual probability (P) of dying from a nuclear bomb (based on the period 1945-2007, noting that 200,000 people died in the 1945 Nagasaki and Hiroshima atomic bomb explosions and assuming an average post-war human population of about 4 billion) = 200,000/4,000,000,000 x 62 ≈ 10 -6

Since a nuclear bombing has not happened since 1945 we have a problem in trying to assess P(annual death from a nuclear bomb) for the post-war period. However we could assess it as less than the P(dying from lightning) i.e. <>-6 = 1/1,000,000 = 0.0001% (see #iv). Hopefully it is much, much less than this but if a full nuclear exchange happens in the coming century the loss of life will be 6-9 billion people.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) gave a 90% Probability of a greenhouse catastrophe that would kill 1 billion this century if not ameliorated. How ever Professor James Lovelock FRS recently estimated that over 6 billion will die from unaddressed climate change this century.

The P for global poverty = 1.0 = 100% i.e. it is a palpable reality that currently causes 16 million avoidable deaths every year (roughly 10 million of under-5 year old infants) i.e. 16 million x 100 = 1,600 million = 1.6 billion over the coming century (assuming constancy of circumstances).

The Global avoidable mortality holocaust (16 million avoidable deaths each year, about 9.5 million of them those of under-5 year old children) is largely due to violence, deprivation, disease and LYING.

We will explore these three major threats later in this course and see how the world can be made safer for our children and grandchildren.

vi. Atomic structure & chemistry

Some basic chemistry and physics is needed as a background at this point. Atoms have tiny but high mass nuclei composed of positively-charged protons (p+), electrically neutral neutrons (n0) and surrounded by very low mass negatively charged electrons (e-) in orbitals (shells). There are stable and unstable nuclei; molecules are composed of more than one atom that bind together via “covalent bonds” involving the sharing of electrons; there are nuclear energy levels and electronic energy states; light absorption excites electrons to higher energy levels and fluorescence (with lower energy light) is emitted when the electrons become de-excited and fall back to lower energy levels.

Many elements (e.g. H, hydrogen, C, carbon, O, oxygen, N, nitrogen etc) can have isotopes (having different numbers of neutrons but the same number of protons and electrons and hence essentially the same chemical behaviour); some isotopes are unstable (like too many eggs in one basket) and are called radionuclides, which decompose randomly but with a characteristic half-life (time for 50% of the radionuclide atoms and hence radioactivity to decay) and in the process yields radioactivity or high energy radioactive particles (e.g. electrons, e-, positrons e+, neutrons, n0, alpha particles or helium nuclei , He-4 nuclei = 2n + 2p) and high enrgy electromagnetic radiation (X-rays and gamma rays) that can ionize molecules (introduce electrical charges, + or -) that in turn causes chemical reactions that can be deleterious (e.g. damage to DNA, mutation, cancer, teratogenic effects).

As we have seen above, atoms are made up of a central nucleus (of high mass but taking up a minute amount of space) composed of large mass nucleons (positively charged protons, p+, and uncharged neutrons, n) surrounded by a cloud of negatively charged, very low mass electrons (e-). There are even more fundamental particles – thus protons and neutrons are composed of quarks held together by a strong force from gluon exchange between quarks. Thus a proton, p+, is composed of 2 up-quarks and 1 down-quark and a neutron, n, is composed on 2 down-quarks and 1 up-quark. There is a huge amount of “missing” dark matter in the Universe of unknown nature.

The simplest atom is that of hydrogen, H, or more specifically the H isotope H-1 which has a tiny central nucleus containing 1 proton surrounded by an electron cloud:

1p+ + 1 e- = H-1. The nucleus is tiny but has most of the mass.

The chemical behaviour of atoms is determined by the electrons which occupy specific orbitals around the central nucleus. Thus H has a valency of 1 and can form a single bond by sharing its one electron with other atoms e.g. H* reacts with another H# to form the diatomic hydrogen molecule H2 in which electrons * and # are shared via a single bond: H*#H = H-H = H2 (conventionally H2).

Other elements have more protons and neutrons and the number of electrons equals the number of protons. Thus Helium (He-4) is composed of 2p+ + 2 n + 2 e- .

The mass of a proton is 1.007276 amu (atomic mass unit = u).

The mass of a neutron = 1.008665 amu

The mass of an electron is 0.000549 amu

1 amu = u = = 1.66 x 10-27 kg .

The various electron orbitals or shells can accommodate only specific maximum numbers of electrons and have various “quantized” energy levels – thus electrons within an orbital can be excited by absorption of light (photons) to higher energy levels and in the process of de-excitation energy is released as light (fluorescence).

The outer electrons of atoms can participate in forming bonds with other atoms e.g. single bonds X-Y (2 electrons shared), double bonds X=Y (4 electrons shared) and triple bonds X≡Y (6 electrons shared).

Thus Hydrogen (H), Oxygen (O), Nitrogen (N) and Carbon (C ) have valencies of 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Sulphur can have valencies of 2 and 4. Thus these elements can form the following molecules: molecular Hydrogen H2 (H-H), diatomic Oxygen O2 (O=O), carbon dioxide CO2 (O=C=O), ammonia NH3, nitrogen N2 (N≡N), methane CH4, nitrous oxide N2O, ethane (H3C-CH3), ethene (ethylene) (H2C=CH2), acetylene (H-C≡C-H), hydrogen sulphide H2S (H-S-H), water, H2O (H-O-H) and sulphur dioxide SO2 (O=S=O).

When these molecules absorb light they become excited and the constituent atoms can vibrate along bonds or rotate about single bonds i.e. they warm up. CO2 (actually written CO2) in the atmosphere will absorb various wavelengths of light from the Sun or reflected or re-emitted from the Earth and it is this that is important in global warming.

Molecules or atoms lose electrons they become more positive and when they gain electrons become more negative – such entities are called ions and the process of producing such ions (e.g. by collision with radioactive particles) is called ionization.

In aqueous solution (i.e. in water) H2O molecules can ionize readily to form the hydrogen ion H+ (a proton, p+) and a hydroxyl ion (OH-) . More H+ makes a solution more acidic (lower pH) and more OH- makes the solution more alkaline (higher pH). Acids (e.g. the acetic acid in vinegar) more or less readily give up protons (H+) (making the solution more acidic) and bases (e.g. ammonia) more or less readily bind protons (thereby making the solution more alkaline). At neutral pH (pH 7) the concentration of H+ (denoted [H+]) equals the concentration of OH- (denoted [OH-]).

The various elements differ in electronegativity – thus in water, H2O, H-O-H, the electrons shared between the H atoms and the O atom (imagine these as electron clouds) are more closely associated with the more electronegative O atom so that the H atoms carry a small negative charge and the O atom carries a more positive charge. The result of this unequal sharing is that H-O-H is a polar molecule (Hδ- -Oδ+ -Hδ- ) and can form weak, so-called hydrogen bonds between other molecules, including other H2O molecules, thus: H-O-Hδ-…Oδ+=X. Thus at temperatures below 0 degrees Centigrade (oC ) the Hydrogen Bonds are strong and water forms the solid ice; between 0 oC and 100 oC it is a liquid (the hydrogen bonding is much weaker and the association less ordered) and above 100 oC water (at standard pressure at sea level) is a gas.

vii. Biochemistry – the chemistry of life

Biochemistry is the chemistry of life. We have already considered atomic structure and molecular structure and molecular polarity in (vi). Life is a self-repairing, self-replicating, water-based system. We will briefly consider thermodynamics (free energy, G, and entropy, S), information flow, energy flow; mutation, variation, natural selection and evolution; monomers and polymers (proteins from amino acid monomers , polynucleotides from mononucleotide monmers, polysaccharides e.g. starch and cellulose, from monosaccharide monomers i.e. simple sugars); polysaccharides, lipids and polypeptides; DNA, RNA, gene expression – transcription of DNA → RNA → translation of messenger RNA on ribosomes → polypeptides → protein folding → protein targeting; amino acids, hydrophobicity, proteins, enzymes, catalysis; protein denaturation, ligands, substrates, drugs; LD50 (lethal dose for 50% mortality), IC50 (concentration for 50% inhibition of an enzyme) and Kd (dissociation constant, measure of tightness of binding of a ligand (e.g. a toxin) to, for example, a protein: units Moles per Litre i.e. concentration units).

viii. Cell structure, membranes, organelles, biochemical compartmentation

Cell structure – membranes, cytosol, nucleus, mitochondria, endoplasmic reticulum and other organelles; functional localization of metabolic pathways. Metabolism - overall oxidation-reduction strategy, ATP as “energy currency” – photosynthesis, catabolism (breakdown to yield energy in the form of molecules of “energy-rich” ATP, the “energy currency” of cells); anabolism (using ATP to make complex, big molecules like polysaccharides, DNA, RNA, proteins and lipids from small precursors); compartmentation and control; anaerobic glycolysis in cytosol (emergency; glucose → lactic acid [lactate; 2 ATP per Glucose, Glc]; aerobic glycolysis (normal, 38 ATP per Glc; pyruvate → CO2 in Tricarboxylic acid cycle in Mitochondria [TCA cycle], yielding reduced coenzymes XH2 → electrons (e-) passed down electron transport chain to electron-acceptor oxygen (O2) ,with energy conserved as a proton (p+, H+) gradient → H+ gradient used to make ATP via a rotating ATP synthase (F0F1) in the process called oxidative phosphorylation; pentose phosphate pathway (excess Glc in Plenty used to make reduced coenzyme NADPH for anabolism and the sugar ribose for polynucleotide synthesis); fatty acid synthesis and oxidation; gluconeogenesis (amino acids and pyruvate can be used to make ATP when we are not feeding); urea cycle (involves the cytosol and mitochondria, enables elimination of toxic ammonia NH3 as urea). Control (balance, homeostasis) is vital through mass action, allosteric control (e.g. feed forward activation and feedback inhibition of key enzymes by precursors and products, respectively), protein degradation, /protein synthesis; hormonal signaling; cell division/apoptosis (programmed cell death); fasting/plenty, catabolism (fasting circumstances) /anabolism (plenty circunmstances).

ix. Excitable cells and stimulus-response-coupling

Excitable cells; membranes; hormones and neurotransmitters and their receptors; agonists and antagonists; naturally-occurring (alkaloid, terpene, phenolic and other secondary metabolites) and synthetic compounds (drugs) interacting with Receptors; neurotransmitter- and hormone-gated ion channels; ionotropic (ion channel-perturbing) versus metabotropic (metabolism changing) receptors; ion pumps and ion channels to maintain excitability of cells (e.g. typically low Ca2+, low Na+ and high K+ inside, converse outside the cell).

Plasma membrane G-protein-coupled receptors; primary hormonal or neurotransmitter messages; intracellular second messengers (calcium ions (Ca2+), cyclic AMP = cAMP, cyclic GMP = cGMP, IP3); neurotransmitter transporters and converters.

Cyclic nucleotides, calcium ions & nitric oxide (NO); adenylate cyclase, guanylate cyclase; cyclic nucleotide phosphodiesterases; NO, nitric oxide; second messenger- (i.e. signal-) regulated protein kinases (phosphorylate and thus switch enzymes off or on); phosphoprotein phosphatases (de-phosphorylate proteins).

x. Gene expression, cell division, apoptosis, cancer, taste and toxins

Gene expression, cell division, apoptosis and cancer; ribosome-inactivating enzymes; protein synthesis inhibitors; compounds impairing DNA and RNA synthesis; Taste – sweet, bitter, salty, sour & umami tastes; odour receptors; pheromones, insect attractants, semiochemicals, perfumes, garlic and flatulence.

Steroid hormone & related hormone receptors; cortisol, progesterone, oestrogen, testosterone, retinoic acid, thyroxine, dioxin-binding and other receptors; DNA-binding drugs and DNA adducts; membrane-active compounds; hydrophobicity; lectins, allergenic lectins, saponins; feminizing of the world through oestrogen-like, fat-soluble industrial products; radioactivity, ionizing radiation and DNA mutations (inheritable defects, teratogenic effects); detoxification of xenobiotics; synergistic effects and paradoxical decreased toxin effects sometimes at higher concentrations because of induction of protection mechanisms; DNA repair.

xi. SOLUTIONS – the class will discuss solutions to deficiencies in this area e.g. public education; cessation of public funding for promotion of dangerous sex (anti-condom religiosity), licit drugs (alcohol, tobacco, excessive food), illicit drugs (e.g. Afghan War), ignorance (Intelligent Design, Creationism, Biblical literalism Homophobia); radioactive waste, nuclear threat; toxic environmental pollutants e.g. PCBs e.g. dioxins, mercury ions Hg 2+ , other heavy metal ions, CFCs (ozone destroying) and other greenhouse gas pollution (N2O, CO2, CH4) (see below).


i. Jane Austen

Jane Austen was a marvellous writer and had every right as an artist to choose her style and composition e.g. Austenizing, “nice” Constable versus “radical” Turner – however scientists, historians and economists do not have the right in RRM to “pick and choose” data.

Mainstream media politician and academic lying by omission, ignoring, denial, “Austenizing” (sweetening or softening reality), holocaust denial, genocide denial, white-washing of history; history ignored yields history repeated, genocide ignored yields genocide repeated.

Examples of lying by omission and commission- Bengal famines; 9/11; US history of wars and genocide; genocides; Australian history; Aboriginal genocide; 1,000 Bush lies before the Iraq war; obfuscatory climate scepticism.

ii. Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History

Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability
by Gideon Maxwell Polya


1. Introduction - truth, reason, science and history [ 1 ]
2. The editing of Jane Austen’s connections - the Leighs and Brydges [ 8 ]
3. The editing of the Austens and consequences of rustic amusement [ 18 ]
4. Jane Austen’s siblings and their descendants [ 27 ]
5. The editing of Jane Austen’s life [ 33 ]
6. The rare intrusion of humble social reality into Jane Austen’s novels [ 42 ]
7. The sensibility of Jane Austen’s literary contemporaries [ 56 ]
8. The judgement of Jane Austen’s peers and successors [ 66 ]
9. The East India Company, the Black Hole and the conquest of Bengal [ 75 ]
10. The Great Bengal Famine of 1769-1770 [ 88 ]
11. Warren Hastings and the conquest of India [ 99 ]
12. The impeachment of Warren Hastings and the judgement of history [ 106 ]
13. Colonial famine, genocide and ethnocide [ 114 ]
14. The Bengal Famine of 1943-1944 [ 133 ]
15. Pride and Prejudice - Churchill, Science, the Bengal Famine and the Jewish Holocaust [ 148]
16. Global warming and the unthinkable world of 2050 [ 166 ]
17. Antipodean epilogue - the moral dimension of the Lucky Country and the world [ 174 ]
Notes [ 199 ]
Bibliography [ 227 ]
Index [ 252 ]


Repetition of immense crimes against humanity such as the World War 2 Holocaust is made less likely when the responsible society acknowledges the crime, apologizes, makes amends and accepts the injunction “Never again”.
This book is concerned in part with the 2 century holocaust in British India that commenced with the Great Bengal Famine of 1769-1770 (10 million victims), concluded with the World War 2 Bengal Famine (4 million victims) and took tens of millions of lives in between.
However these events have been almost completely written out of history and removed from general perception, there has been no apology nor amends made and indeed it is generally accepted that, in the absence of effective global action, these horrors will be repeated on an unimaginably larger scale in the coming century.
This carefully documented “J’accuse” addresses what the author terms the “Austenizing” of history or the deletion of awful realities from historical writing.
While it was legitimate for Jane Austen, the artist, to render her exquisite novels free of the contemporary awfulness in which her connections participated, the Austenizing of British history is a holocaust-denying outrage that threatens humanity.


Chapter 1: History ignored yields history repeated; the victor writes history; historians like scientists must respect the basic data; the “Austenizing” of British history or the deletion of awful or embarrassing realities from British historiography (most notably the effective deletion of 2 centuries of horrendous famines in British India culminating in the “forgotten holocaust” of World War 2 Bengal); the British Anglo-Celtic Christian, Austro-Hungarian Jewish and Bihari-Bengali Hindu-Muslim antecedents of the author’s children; the post-Holocaust injunction of “Never again” applied to the “forgotten holocausts” of British India and the looming spectre of mass starvation in the coming century.

Chapter 2: The Austenizing of the maternal connections of Jane Austen; James Brydges and wealth from colonialism and imperialist wars; Indian connections and the theft charge against Jane Austen’s aunt Jane Leigh-Perrot.

Chapter 3: The Austenizing of the paternal connections of Jane Austen; the productive adultery of Warren Hastings, first Governor-General of India, with Jane Austen’s aunt Philadelphia Hancock; transplanting Jane Austen country to Tasmania and consequent ecocide and genocide.

Chapter 4: The Austenizing of Jane Austen’s siblings and their descendants; recurrent consanguinity; the British imperial and Indian involvements of Jane Austen’s family.

Chapter 5: Jane Austen’s life; remarkable differential reportage of Jane Austen’s life and connections.

Chapter 6: The exclusion of any awfulness and the rare intrusion of humble social reality into Jane Austen’s novels; succinct synopses and social content analysis of Jane Austen’s major works; recurrent consanguinity; Sense and Sensibility an Indian-connected novel that barely disguises the affair of Warren Hastings with Jane Austen’s aunt in Bengal; a powerful message from Jane Austen’s exquisite writing - “No matter what our place in the world, we are all empowered by the dignified, intelligent and articulate use of words”.

Chapter 7: The sensitivity of Jane Austen’s literary contemporaries to domestic and colonial abuses of humanity; George Crabbe, Oliver Goldsmith, William Cowper, Robert Burns, Samuel Johnson, Richard Brinsley Sheridan, Lord Byron and Lord Teignmouth; limited British literary responses to the invasion and oppression of India and the Great Bengal Famine of 1769-1770.

Chapter 8: Literary criticism of Jane Austen; Jane Austen and the feminist perspective; the Jane Austen industry; Jane Austen and British imperialists; Jane Austen’s artistically legitimate exclusion of awfulness from her exquisite novels has been quite illegitimately taken by 2 centuries of British historians as a paradigm for the Austenizing or comprehensive white-washing of British history.

Chapter 9: The East India Company; the Black Hole of Calcutta story as grossly exaggerated, historically dubious, Imperial mythology - a Big Lie of British History that demonized Indians and helped to justify 2 centuries of oppression and famine; Siraj-ud-daulah, Clive and the conquest of Bengal.

Chapter 10: The genesis, course and extended aftermath of the Great Bengal Famine of 1769-1770; 10 million victims; a rich country rendered desolate as observed by Jane Austen’s connections; rapacious taxation and mass human starvation; effective deletion of the Great Bengal Famine from British history.

Chapter 11: Warren Hastings, first Governor-General of India and actual father of Jane Austen’s cousin and sister-in-law Eliza De Feuillade (née Hancock); rapacious taxation of famine-devastated Bengal; the Rohilla War, the judicial murder of Nandkumar, conflict with Mysore, Hyderabad and the Marathas, the robbing of the Begums of Oudh and the devastation of Oudh by war, taxation and consequent famine; Hastings’ duel with his foe Philip Francis (that resurfaces in Jane Austen’s Sense and Sensibility).

Chapter 12: The impeachment and trial of Warren Hastings by the British Parliament - Britain’s only equivalent of a major war crimes trial over the abuses of British imperialism; Sheridan’s great speeches; the acquittal of Hastings; the judgement of history and the Austenizing of British imperial crimes.

Chapter 13: 2 centuries of appalling, recurrent famine in British India from 1769 to 1945; comparison of recurrent famine under the British in dry Rajasthan and lush Bengal; British colonial slavery, oppression, famine, genocide and ethnocide in Asia, Africa, the Americas, Oceania, Australia and indeed in Britain and Ireland; the crimes of other imperialist powers; Charles Trevelyan and famine in Ireland and India; the genocide of the Tasmanian aborigines.

Chapter 14:
The genesis, war-time context and appalling actuality of the Bengal Famine of 1943-1944; loss of rice from Burma, catastrophic war-time decrease in Indian food imports, food exports, temporary seizure of rice stocks, seizure and destruction of boats, Indian provincial food supply autonomy, no famine declaration, hoarding, British unresponsiveness, drastic cuts to Indian Ocean shipping, catastrophic rice price rises leading to mass starvation; British Military Labour Corps and civilian sexual exploitation of famine victims including children; Wavell, Mountbatten and Casey and final responses to the famine; the 1943-1946 excess mortality of about 4 million Bengalis due to famine and attendant disease; the documenting of the famine and the effective deletion of the famine from history and from general public perception.

Chapter 15: Churchill, World War 2, the Bengal Famine and the Jewish Holocaust; Churchill’s life and his hatred for Indians; Churchill and British air defence, knowledge of the indefensibility of Singapore, Japanese entry into the War and fore-knowledge of the attack on Pearl Harbor; Churchill, Lindeman, the importance of proper scientific advice to government, the air war in Europe, the Battle of the Atlantic, the shipping crisis and famine in India; famine as a strategic weapon to control restless subjects; Muslim containment, the Middle East, oil, the refusal to allow Jewish escape from Europe, the Jewish Holocaust and the forgotten, substantially Muslim Holocaust of Bengal; Churchill’s contribution to Muslim-Hindu antipathy as his final legacy to India; the effective deletion of the Bengal Famine from history and general public perception.

Chapter 16: Global warming and sea level, human health and tropical versus temperate agricultural productivity consequences; population growth, global agricultural sustainability and the growing discrepancy between population and food supply; the crisis in biological sustainability.

Chapter 17: Unresponsiveness of the world to the World War 2 Jewish Holocaust and to the “forgotten holocaust” of the Bengal Famine; examination of liberal, democratic, highly-educated and prosperous Australia (the Lucky Country) by way of assessment of the likelihood of timely global response to the impending environmental, population and sustainable food production crisis of the coming century; pre-invasion aboriginal Australia, invasion and genocide, racism of White Australia, the apogee of social decency in Australia and the current resurgent racism towards aboriginals and Asians; genocide, ethnocide, ecocide and terracide in Australia and unresponsiveness to the global crisis; a recent experimental test of the moral responsiveness of prosperous, liberal, democratic Australia - the war-time Bengal Famine (accounting for about 90% of World War 2 British Empire military plus civilian casualties) continues to be effectively ignored and thus removed from public perception by the ostensibly liberal political, media, academic and intellectual Establishment of Australia (and of Britain); how we can prevent the looming disaster - peri-conception, male sex selection as an example of a humane, non-invasive, pro-choice mechanism to reduce population (empirical evidence being provided by Fiji, a very tolerant and peaceful multi-racial society that developed from an initially large male over female imbalance among the Indian “indentured slaves”); further civilized contributions include the childless, culturally-absorbed Jane Austen option, tolerance of homosexuality and profound sympathy for the richness of the world as exhibited by Third World small-holder and aboriginal societies.


The world is facing a crisis in biological sustainability due to the connected problems of excessive and increasing population, profligate use of resources and remorseless environmental degradation. Near-comprehensive holocaust denial in our culture in relation to several centuries of recurrent, horrendous famines in British India has blunted our responsiveness to such man-made catastrophes and continues to contribute to the global failure to face up to avoidable mass starvation in the coming century. The world must resolutely apply the post-Holocaust injunction of “Never again” to these past events and take incisive steps to avoid repetition in the future.

iii. SOLUTIONS – the class will discuss solutions – exposure of mainstream media, politicians and academic lying (problem: defamation laws); zero tolerance of lying , denial; public education; responsibility for action and inaction (Professor Peter Singer) ; no-penalty holocaust denial criminalization; de-Nazification of the Western Murdochracies (as suggested by George Soros for Bush America); Internet and Alternative media to get through the Media Wall of Silence.


Post-1945 Germany adopted a C4A protocol and attendant actions – Cessation of the killing (forced surrender) ; Acknowledgement of the crimes (Nuremberg Trials, de-Nazification); Apology for the crimes (but not to Roma and possibly not to others; Germany was linked to the NATO bombing of Serbia in the 1990s); Amends (some reparations to some Jews but EU recognized Hungarian post-war dispossession of Jewish property); Assertion of “never again to anyone” (now grossly violated through NATO bombing of Serbia; German involvement in the Afghan Genocide, post-invasion excess deaths 3-6 million).

Some major examples of other atrocities are listed below with details of CAAAA (C4A) observance. Note the definition of genocide by Article 2 of the UN Genocide Convention (see: ): Article II. In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such: a) Killing members of the group; b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”

i. Irish Famine – 1840s; 1 million died while grain was exported; 1 million emigrated, with many dying on arrival or en route (British PM Blair Acknowledged and Apologized in 1997; major UK Holocaust Denial).

ii. British Indian Holocaust and WW2 Bengali Holocaust – 1.5 billion excess deaths over 2 centuries; 6-7 million Indian deaths associated with the 1943-1945 Bengal Famine (in 1997 Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II on a State Visit to India Acknowledged the 1919 Punjab Amritsar Massacre involving 379 killed and 1,200 wounded; major UK Holocaust Denial).

iii. Global Avoidable Mortality Holocaust – 1950-2005 1.3 billion excess deaths on Spaceship Earth with the First World in charge of the Flight Deck (0.9 billion under-5 year old infants) (not even Acknowledgement).

iv. Australian Aboriginal Genocide – population dropped from about 1 million to 0.1 million in the first century (disease, dispossession, deprivation massacre – the last massacres in the 1920s); 0.1 million Stolen in the Stolen Generations (cessation in the 1970s); ongoing Aboriginal Genocide (9,000 avoidable deaths annually, 90,000 under 11 years of Coalition rule, huge health problems, may vanish this century according to top Australian diabetologist (some Acknowledgment, much Holocaust Denial and promised careful ‘no obligation” 2008 Federal Government Apology for the Stolen generations).

v. 19th – 20th century Indigenous Holocausts (North America, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, French West Africa, South Africa, Southern and Central Africa, India, Australia, New Zealand, Pacific e.g. in 1875 40,000 Fijians died out of a population of 150,000 due to measles from Sydney) (little public Acknowledgment, no Apology, Amends or Assertion “never again” – Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand refused to sign the 2007 UN Declaration on Indigenous Rights).

vi. Armenian Genocide – 1.5 million Armenians murdered by Turks in 1915-1919 (Turkey still denies that it was an Armenian Genocide supported by US Bush-ites , US neo-Bush-ites, US Racist Zionists, Apartheid Israel – however Belgium and France have criminalized denial of the Armenian Genocide; little acknowledgment in Australia that helped precipitate the Genocide through the Gallipoli invasion, April 25 1915, the first Anzac Day – April 24 1915 marks the commencement of the genocide and is Armenian Genocide Day).

vii. Katyn Massacre of Polish officers and other citizens - by USSR (1940); 15,000-22,000 dead; assertions and denials (final Acknowledgment by Russia after war-time propaganda saying it was done by the Nazis; indeed Russia is still hostile to proper investigation).

viii. China in WW2 – 35 million war dead (1937-1945) (Japan still not Acknowledging the war-time atrocities in school text books).

ix. Palestinian Genocide - 50,000 killed post-1948; 0.7 million fled in 1948 and not allowed to return; post-1967 excess deaths 0.3 million; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths 0.2 million; 7 million refugees (4.3 registered with the UNHCR); 2,400 avoidable under-5 infant deaths each year due to Apartheid Israeli war crimes) (no Acknowledgment, the Palestinian Genocide continues).

x. Iraqi Genocide – post-invasion excess deaths 1.5-2 million; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths 0.6 million; 4.5 million refugees; Gulf war, 0.2 million violent deaths; Sanctions 1990-2003, 1.7 million excess deaths, 1.2 million under-5 infant deaths (no Acknowledgment; the Iraqi Genocide continues; Madeleine Albright, in 1996 over 0.5 million dead Iraqi children: “the price was worth it”).

xi. Afghan Genocide - post-invasion excess deaths 3-6 million; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths 2.3 million; 4 million refugees (no Acknowledgment; the Afghan Genocide continues).

xii. Post-2001 Opiate drug deaths – 0.6 million post-2001 opiate drug deaths, about 90% avoidable i.e. 0.5 million (50,000 Americans) , and due to US Alliance restoration of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry from 5% of world market share in 2001 to 93% in 2007 (no Acknowledgment; the deaths continue at the rate of 0.1 million annually, 300 annually in Australia).

xiii. 1950-2005 excess deaths in countries subject to post-war occupation by the following countries as MAJOR occupiers: Australia (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands; 2.1 million); Belgium (Burundi, Rwanda, Congo; 36 million); Ethiopia (Eritrea; 1.8 million); France (142 million); Indonesia (East Timor; 0.7 million); Iraq (Kuwait; 0.09 million); Israel (24 million); Netherlands (72 million); New Zealand (Samoa; 0.04 million); Pakistan (East Pakistan that thence became Bangladesh, 52 million); Portugal (24 million); Russia (37 million); South Africa (Namibia, 0.7 million); Spain (8.6 million); Turkey (Cyprus, 0,05 million); UK (727 million); US (82 million).

xiv. Forgotten Holocausts – the Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) is necessarily known to everyone; less known is the WW2 Holocaust of which it was a part (30 million Slavic, Jewish and Roma victims, the breakdown (overlapping in relation to Jewish victims) being 20 million (Russia), 6 million (Poland), 6 million (Jews), 1 million (Yugoslavia, Serbs, Bosnians and Jews), 1 million Roma, 2 million Jewish, Slavic and Roma victims elsewhere in Eastern Europe) ( minimal Acknowledgment; see also item ii, the “forgotten” WW2 Bengal Famine ).

xv. Ongoing Climate Genocide - According to the 2007 IPCC Synthesis report, unaddressed CO2 pollution and global warming will have a devastating effect on global malnutrition and poverty (see: According the Professor David Pimentel (2004) of Cornell University, New York, global malnutrition and poverty will be an “unimaginable” problem by 2054 (see: ), already pollution of the soil, water and air kills about 40% of the world’s population and 57% of the world’s population of 6.5 billion is already malnourished (see: ). Professor James Lovelock estimates that over 6 billion will perish this century due to unaddressed greenhouse pollution and global warming (see: ) (no Acknowledgment by the major climate criminal countries Australia, US and Canada; biofuel and meat-eating perversions are already elevating food prices with 57 days’ global food supply left, the worst situation for decades).


The class will consider possible solutions e.g. the fundamental message of the WW2 Holocaust is “zero tolerance for racism and never again to anyone”; we should apply this to the holocaust committers and holocaust deniers, especially those currently involved in genocide commission and genocide denial (the US, UK, Israel, Australia, NATO) in gross violation of the fundamental message of the Holocaust; sanctions, boycotts and information campaigns against those involved in genocide commission and genocide denial, holocaust commission and holocaust denial; education, Alternative media and bypassing the racist, lying , holocaust-ignoring Mainstream media of the Western Murdochracies.


This part of the course involves consideration of a detailed submission that I made to the Australian Garnaut Climate Change review in January 2008 an which is reproduced below.

“Climate Emergency and Sustainability Emergency” - Submission from Dr Gideon Polya to the Garnaut Climate Change Review

Garnaut Climate Change Review, Level 2, 1 Treasury Place, Melbourne, VIC 3002

This submission by a senior scientist is in response to a general invitation for submissions made on the Garnaut Climate Change Review Website: .


The Garnaut Climate Change Review is an independent study by Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by Australia's State and Territory Governments on 30 April 2007. A new Australian Government under Labor Party Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was sworn in on Monday 3 December, 2007 and the newly-elected PM Rudd has confirmed the participation of the Commonwealth Government in the Review.

The Review will examine the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, and recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity. The Review's final report is due on 30 September 2008, with a draft by 30 June 2008. A number of forums will also be held around Australia to engage the public on various issues relating to the Review.

This submission to the Garnaut Change Review is by a senior scientist committed to Rational Risk Management that successively involves (a) accurate data, (b) scientific analysis and (c) systemic change to minimize risk (for a detailed, expert exposition see Professor James Reason, “Human error: models and management”, British Medical Journal, vol. 320, 768-770, 2000: ).

Indeed as a responsible pubIic service I have committed a lot of time and effort to informing governments, media and fellow citizens about important matters, of which the most critically important are Australia’s involvement in the ongoing Aboriginal Genocide (90,000 excess Indigenous deaths under 11 years of Coalition rule) , the Iraqi Genocide (1.5-2 million post-invasion excess deaths, 4.5 million refugees), the Afghan Genocide (3-6 million post-invasion excess deaths, 4 million refugees) and prospective Climate Genocide through Global Warming that threatens 6 billion avoidable deaths this century (see: ; for detailed and documented analyses see Rudd Australia Report Cards #1, #2 and #3:; Iraqi Genocide: ; Climate Genocide: ; Afghan Genocide: ).

16 million people die avoidably in the world each year (see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: and ) but global warming is already impacting human excess mortality and eminent atmosphere scientist Professor James Lovelock FRS estimates that 6 billion will die this century due to unaddressed global warming (see: ).

The world is facing a potential catastrophe due successively to industrial profligacy, greenhouse gas pollution, global warming and declining per capita sustainable resources. This potential problem of environmental pollution and impacts on biological sustainability has been familiar to scientists since the 19 th century research of John Tyndall; was addressed by the Club of Rome in circa 1970; and which was further addressed by successive Assessment Reports of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change since 1990 (see: ).

As a chemistry-based scientist for 4 decades, I was aware of the finiteness of the atmosphere, the oceans, arable land and fossil fuel reserves from the start of my career. I was made aware of the mounting atmospheric problems back in 1972 as a Queen Elizabeth II Fellow in the department of one of Australia’s top hydrologists and biophysicists who later went on to be Chief Scientist of Australia.

In 1998 I published a book entitled “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability” (see: ). In short, I argued that history ignored yields history repeated, holocaust ignored yields holocaust repeated and that the ignoring of successive Bengali Holocausts under the British - the 1769-1770 Bengal Famine (10 million deaths) and the 1943-1944 Bengal Famine (4 million deaths) - will permit a horrendous disaster in the 21st century due to industrial profligacy, man-made global warming and destructive inundation of mega-deltaic Bengal. My predictions of holocaust ignoring and irresponsible industrial profligacy are already being realized – recently formerly densely populated Bengali islands permanently disappeared under the waves, and the last major Bay of Bengal hurricane was the worst for several decades.

Indeed at the height of the “forgotten” 4 million excess death WW2 Bengal Famine (experienced and studied by 1998 Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen of Cambridge and thence Harvard universities) millions of tons of wheat were used to run the railways in Argentina due to the WW2 shortage a coal (see: ) – an obscenity now mirrored in the current huge diversion of US grain production to biofuel production with (together with other factors) a consequent steep increase in food prices, the lowest number of food supply days for decades and looming famine for the 2 billion people ALREADY suffering food deprivation.

Climate change is already contributing to the 16 million avoidable deaths (including 9.6 million of under-5 year old infants) that occur each year on Spaceship Earth with the profligate First World in charge of the flight deck (2003 figures; see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: ). Worse is yet to come due to DECLINE in agricultural sustainability, potable water, fisheries, tropical and sub-tropical agricultural productivity, drought, developing world nutrition and even safe living space for mega-delta communities subject to sea level rise, storm surges and salinization.

A must-read document for policy makers is the 2007 “Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)” (for a Summary of the Summary see: and .

Sir Nicholas Stern his authoritative Stern report on the economics of climate change states that it will be cheaper to act now rather than later. For example, in a recent lecture Sir Nicholas Stern states: "For $10-15bn (£4.8-7.2bn) per year, a programme could be constructed that could stop up to half the deforestation” (which contributes 10-15% of greenhouse pollution) and after describing climate change as the “world’s worst market failure”, he says that there must be an 80% reduction in rich nations' greenhouse gas pollution by 2050 if the world is to avoid "destructive" consequences of global warming (see: ).

Indeed the draft recommendation at the December 2007 Bali Conference was for a developed country 25-40% reduction on 1990 levels of greenhouse gas pollution by 2020 – a position opposed by climate criminal countries the US, Canada, Japan and Rudd Australia (see:,25197,22910382-5013871,00.html ).

Unfortunately Rudd Labor, while having secured an urgently needed victory in the elections over the greenhouse sceptic and greenhouse unresponsive Bush-ite Coalition, is simply not green enough (see: link ). While Rudd Labor has ratified Kyoto, it is using the otherwise sensible need for “evidence before policy change” as an EXCUSE not to commit to short-term greenhouse reduction targets until the final form of the Garnaut Report in late 2008. With due respect to the eminent and respected Professor Garnaut and his Report-in-Progress we ALREADY have the Stern Report (see: ) from a former Chief Economist of the World Bank (endorsed and indeed criticized as too conservative by former World Bank Chief Economist and 2001 Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University) and the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (see: ) endorsed by leading climate change scientists from essentially all countries.

Indeed the likely target of Stern (500-550 ppm atmospheric CO2 ) is a catastrophe for the planet – according to Professor James Lovelock FRS at 500 ppm atmospheric CO2 the Greenland Ice Sheet goes and so does the ocean phytoplankton system that is crucial for cloud formation (through dimethyl sulphide production), planetary temperature homeostasis (through CO2 sequestration) and oceanic food chains (J. Lovelock, The Revenge of Gaia”, Penguin, London, 2006).

PM Rudd has stated that before making a decision on short term targets his Government needs to have the “facts”. Well, the World has had the “facts” for a dozen years and what follows is a scientist’s assessment of the “facts” drawn from authoritative American and European technical sources. Unfortunately in the Australian Murdochracy, the politically correct racist (PC racist) Land of Lies and Flies, Australia’s world #1 coal exports that contribute over 50% of Australia’s total annual greenhouse gas pollution are not even a matter for public discussion (except for the ethical and responsible Australian Greens) (for how a mature society regards the matter see George Monbiot’s “The real answer to climate change is to leave fossil fuels in the ground”:,,2225387,00.html ).

Indeed any specifically “economic impact” research in 2007-2008 by the eminent Professor Ross Garnaut Climate Change Review will be instantly trashed if the Rest of the World (i.e. other than the US-Australia-Canada-Japan quartet opposing 25-40% reduction in CO2 pollution by 2020) decides officially or unofficially to impose Sanctions, Boycotts or Green Tariffs on the goods and services of climate criminal countries.

Further, what we are facing is a Climate Emergency and a Sustainability Emergency as revealed by the eminent American atmosphere scientist Dr James Hansen who has recently stated that 300-350 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the safe, sustainable level for the biosphere and human survival – whereas it is actually 383 ppm now and increasing by 2.5 ppm every year. Dr Hansen is effectively calling not for ZERO EMISSIONS but NEGATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS (see the Friends of the Earth’s ”Climate Code Red – the case for a sustainability emergency”: and ).

Australia and the World are already experiencing mass flora and fauna extinctions. Qualitatively, this huge destruction of what we can never replace is utterly unacceptable. This economic barbarism is dramatically illustrated by the Great Barrier Reef of Australia.

A recent paper in the prestigious journal Science reveals that at 450 ppm CO2 world coral reefs will start dying from ocean acidification (see: ). The coal industry (that is helping to destroy world coral reefs) is worth about A$25 billion pa to Australia (A$2 billion to 25,000 workers and at 30% company tax, about A$8 billion to the taxpayer) - as compared to A$7 billion pa from tourism and 63,000 jobs associated with the Great Barrier Reef (Access Economics: ).

However what is INESTIMABLY more important than a mere circa 1% of Australia’s annual GDP is the prospective destruction of organisms that have been around for half a billion years, the destruction of complex coral ecosystems that have been around for tens of millions of years and the attendant devastation of the ecosystems crucially required for numerous other marine organisms and crucial, humanity-sustaining fisheries.

A crucial paper in the top scientific journal Science of major importance for the Garnaut Review is the seminal, multi-author paper by Balmford et al entitled “Economic reasons for conserving wild nature” (Science, 9 August 2002, 950: ; ). These authors estimate that for a number of ecosystems (biomes) studied the total economic value (TEV) is about 50% greater if the natural resource is used sustainably as opposed to irreversibly and destructively. They have further found that the economic benefit from preserving what is left of wild nature exceeds the cost of doing so by a factor of over 100 (one hundred).

The outstanding Australian bioethicist Professor Peter Singer (Princeton University and University of Melbourne) has stated that: “We are responsible not only for what we do but also for what we could have prevented… We should consider the consequences both of what we do and what we decide not to do.”

(Singer, P. (2000), Writings on an Ethical Life (Ecco Press, New York; ppxv-xvi ). Accordingly we must act NOW in the face of what can be reasonably decribed by sober, informed, economically conservative scientists as a Climate Emergency and a Sustainability Emergency.

A few days ago at a social function I was asked by a top US atmosphere scientist - in Australia to work with top Australian atmospheric scientists - what would I do NOW. My answer in short was as follows: Australia has 50 Gigawatt (50 billion watt) electricity generating capacity (85% fossil fuel-driven at present); it currently spends about A$10 billion pa on fossil fuel subsidies; the installation cost for large-scale wind farms is about A$2 per watt of installed capacity; simply diverting this unconscionable fossil fuel subsidy to wind farm installation would yield A$10 billion pa /A$2 per watt = 5 billion watt capacity pa = 50 billion watt (50 Gigawatt) wind power electricity capacity in a mere 10 years, i.e. by 2017.

As detailed below, stated and committed Rudd Government policy means that it will INCREASE Australia’s fossil annual fuel-derived per capita CO2 pollution (already over 10 times higher than the world average if you include our fossil fuel exports) by about 50% by 2050. Every year is important. We must act urgently NOW. “Waiting for Godot” or, with the utmost respect, “waiting for Garnaut” is not an option.

1. Committed Rudd Labor Policy is effective Climate Racism from a per capita CO2 pollution standpoint

In the recent election campaign Rudd committed to “20% renewables by 2020”, “”60% reduction on 2000 greenhouse gas pollution by 2050” and no constraint on fossil fuel extraction for export. What this ACTUALLY means (based on US Energy Information Administration data, assuming current constant coal, gas and CO2 pollution growth rates, constant population and INCLUDING Australia’s fossil fuel EXPORTS) is the following pattern of “total annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2 emission in tonnes per person per year” (i.e. “Total Annual Per Capita Pollution” or TAPCP) of 43 (2007), 56 (2020) and 65 (2050).

If Australia agrees to “25% reduction on 1990 domestic levels by 2020” this will mean a TAPCP of 44 (2020); a 40% reduction would mean 42. These values are still about 10 times greater than the “Annual Per Capita Pollution” (APCP) value (2004) for the World (4.2) and China (3.6), about 40 times greater than for India (1) and 160 times greater than for Bangladesh (0.25).

Australia’s TAPCP is already 10 times that of China’s 2004 value and Rudd Labor’s “do nothing, set up a committee” approach means a startling continuation in 2008 of Labor’s 2007 5-fold greater version of the racist Labor Immigration Minister Arthur Calwell’s notorious 1947 declaration: “Two Wongs do not make a White” (see: and ) – indeed on the above figures, assuming that China keeps its 2050 APCP to something like 2004 figure, Rudd Labor, for all its ostensible Philosinensis (indeed Arthur Calwell had Chinese friends and spoke Mandarin) is heading for a 2050 TAPCP (65.2) 18 times that of China’s 2004 APCP value (3.6).

2. Professor Garnaut’s “all men are created equal” position (December 2007)

Professor Garnaut (ABC, Lateline, 10 December 2007) stated: (from my notes): “Australia will be pulling its full weight”. “Pulling its full weight” means (if one accepts “all men are created equal” ) that Australia achieves APCP parity (including our fossil fuel exports) with the rest of the world – something that Rudd Labor absolutely refuses to do (see #1). One hopes that the finalized Garnaut Report in late 2008 is able to convince Rudd Labor to eschew the Climate Racism of APCP non-parity.

3. Australian Greens policy consonant with non-Bush-ite “Rest of the World” consensus

The Australian Greens policy is to rapidly phase out fossil fuel extraction and to have an “80% reduction of greenhouse gas pollution by 2050”. This yields an APCP of 2.4 in 2050 and consonant both with the IPCC and Stern 2007 demands for “80% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050”, “Pulling its full weight” (Professor Garnaut, 2007) and “all men are created equal” (Thomas Jefferson, American Declaration of Independence, 1776).

4. US Energy Information Administration data and the climate criminal Bush-ite Coalition legacy

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA; see: ) provides very detailed information about energy usage by all countries of the world for the last 10 years. Back in 1997 the decent world was so concerned about mounting evidence for anthropogenic, greenhouse gas-driven, climate change that it signed on to the Kyoto Protocol. Not only did climate criminal Australia (together with climate criminal US) not sign the Kyoto Protocol, but Australia’s “annual coal exports”, “annual natural gas extraction”, “annual domestic fossil fuel-derived CO2 production” and “annual total fossil fuel-derived CO2 production” plotted versus time yield beautiful straight lines UPWARDS.

Indeed this beautiful linearity gives greater confidence for extrapolation at either end of these graphs. For the convenience of the reader with some graph paper the estimates of “DOMESTIC annual fossil fuel-derived CO2 production” (millions of tonnes) versus time (with per capita estimates of tonnes per person per year in parenthesis, assuming post-2007 population stasis at 21 million) are: 256 (12.2, 1990), 348 (18.2, 2000), 424 (20.2, 2007), 554 (26.3, 2020) and 853 (40.6, 2050); using the same assumptions the “TOTAL annual fossil fuel-derived CO2 production, TAPCP” (with per capita estimates of tonnes per person per year and year in parentheses) is 435 (25.7, 1990), 698 (36.5, 2000), 910 (43.3, 2007), 1,277 (60.8, 2020) and 2,122 (101.0, 2050).

In relation to the above estimates, the Bush-ite Coalition policy of BAU (business as usual) and no constraint on fossil fuel exports would, on the above assumptions, lead to a “total annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution, TAPCP” of 101 tonnes per person per year in 2050, 27 times China’s 2004 APCP value and 2.5 times Australia’s present TAPCP value.

5. Major international comparisons – Australia is the world’s worst developed country per capita greenhouse polluter

Despite the rhetoric, rational approaches to save the Planet are being resolutely opposed by racist, greedy Bush America (the world’s worst greenhouse gas polluter and stand-out Kyoto non-signatory) and previously Bush-ite and presently neo-Bush-ite Australia (the world’s developed country with the worst annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution and the world’s biggest coal exporter).

Thus 2004 data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA; see: ) reveal that “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution, APCP” in tonnes CO2/person is 19.2 (for Australia; 40 if you include Australia’s coal exports), 19.7 (the US), 18.4 (Canada), 9.9 (Japan), 4.2 (the World), 3.6 (China), 1.0 ( India) and 0.25 (for Bangladesh). Neither Bush America nor Bush-ite Australia will sign Kyoto nor cut greenhouse gas pollution – the countries facing devastation from global warming are the mega-delta, below-World-average polluting countries of China, India and Bangladesh.

Australia is the world’s big country with the highest annual per capita greenhouse polluter and is currently playing “dog in the manger” (together with the US, Canada and Japan) in opposing short-term greenhouse gas pollution reduction targets at the December 2007 Bali Conference.

6. Germanwatch index places Australia #54 in the list of the worst CO2 polluters (#56 being worst)

Of course “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution” is but one – albeit a very important – indicator of climate criminality. The Germanwatch Climate Change Index 2008, a comparison of the 56 top CO2 emitting nations (see: ), takes other parameters into account in ranking. In this ranking of 56 top CO2 emitting nations, Sweden and Germany are #1 and #2 for greenhouse responsibility, while shale-oil-rich Canada (a US satrap), coal-rich Australia (a US satrap), the USA and oil-rich Saudi Arabia (a puppet of anti-Arab anti-Semitic, Islamophobic Bush US ) rank #53, #54, #55 and #56, respectively (see: ) .

7. Annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution for the world and Australia with and without land use change (2000)

The US Energy Information Administration gives a year-by-year summary of fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution for every country in the world (see: ). However greenhouse gas pollution (methane, CH4, nitrous oxide, N2O, and carbon dioxide, CO2) comes not just from burning hydrocarbons and coal but also from land use – specifically, agriculture, vegetative decomposition and animal husbandry. A 2000 list of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita provides data with and without this land use component (see: ). Land use contributes about 20% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Out of 185 countries Australia ranked 9th worst (with land use change) and 5th (without land use change). The tonnes of “CO2 equivalent” per person per year were 25.9 (with) and 25.6 (without land use change) for Australia, indicating the preponderant importance of fossil fuel burning to Australia’s “score”.

8. Annual per capita GDP is directly proportional to annual per capita CO2 emission

If you plot “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2” (2004) versus “annual per capita GDP” (2003) the data from most countries fall on a straight line (not quite going through zero on the “annual per capita GDP” axis) and with a slope of about 0.3 kilograms/US dollar of GDP or 300 grams per US dollar (300 g/US$). However many countries fall ABOVE this line, most notably the oil-rich Gulf States (2.5 kg/US$), world’s #1 coal exporter Australia (1.9 kg/US$), Kyoto-violator Canada (0.8 kg/US$) and Kyoto non-signatory US (0.5 kg/US$).

This analysis shows that GDP is currently directly proportional to CO2 emission and the consequence is that to cut emissions it is necessary to (a) cut GDP and/or (b) cut CO2-polluting energy generation for GDP generation i.e. urgently promote renewables or suffer a declining GDP.

9. IPCC summary

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has delivered 4 Assessment reports since 1990, the latest being the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. The prognosis of the latest IPCC Report is very bleak but the situation is actually even worse than they state because of (a) the cut off in scientific papers considered and (b) obfuscatory inputs by climate criminal countries such as the US. For a Summary of the Summary of the 2007 IPCC Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report see: .

The IPCC (2000) has defined various possible scenarios which are summarised in New Scientist, with the worst case scenario being the fast economic growth and globalization, fossil fuel-intensive A1F1 scenario in which global population peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and involving the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies (see: Of various scenarios discussed in the latest IPCC Synthesis Report (see: ) “Category IV” seems the most favoured in public discussion (e.g. in report by Sir Nicholas Stern) and involves stabilization at 485-570 ppm CO2 , 3.2-4.0 degrees centigrade temperature rise above pre-industrial temperature (2-3 degrees above today’s) and 0.6-2.4 metres sea level above the pre-industrial sea level or 0.4 – 2.2 metres above today’s). However Professor Lovelock (“The Revenge of Gaia”) thinks that 500ppm CO2 would cause disastrous phytoplankton and Greenland ice losses with irreversible loss of major global temperature controls.

Recent data from 2 independent sources (see: “Recent CO2 rises exceed worst case scenarios”, New Scientist) reveal that ACTUAL rates of CO2 emission are the same or worse than in the worst case scenario A1F1 that, according to the 2007 IPCC Summary, will lead to catastrophic, long-term stabilization at (upper estimates) 790 ppm CO2, and a 6 degree centigrade higher temperature and 3.7 meter sea level rise relative to pre-industrial levels i.e. CO2 catastrophically at twice today’s level of 379 ppm , temperatures 4-5 degree centigrade above today’s and sea level 0.8-3.5 metres above today’s.

Thanks to climate criminal, climate genocidal countries, notably Bush America (the world’s #1 GHG polluter) and Bush-ite Australia (the world’s #1 coal exporter) – noting that neither of these will constrain GHG (greenhouse gas) pollution - the world is on track to deliver this predicted catastrophe or even WORSE to our children and grandchildren.

10. The Rudd Labor “Garnaut Report excuse”, “waiting for Garnaut” gambit contradicts the expert, IPCC-endorsed Stern injunction to “Act Now”

Both the IPCC Fourth Assessment report and the Stern Report say “act NOW”. However, stripped of mellifluous rhetoric (e.g. “there is no plan B”) the Rudd Labor position involves a roughly 1 year delay (ONE YEAR DELAY) on any concrete action to constrain greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. After nearly 12 years of sustained upward growth of CO2 pollution under the climate criminal Bush-ite Coalition this is simply not good enough. If indeed “there is no plan B” why won’t Rudd Australia sign up to the “Plan A” endorsed by every country in the world except for the US and its satraps Australia, Canada and Japan i.e. “25-40% reduction by 2020”?

According to Stern as quoted by the Guardian (2007): “The average emissions a head must fall from seven tonnes to two to three tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2050, he says. US emissions a head are more than 20 tonnes each year, with European citizens producing 10-15 tonnes each. In China it is about five tonnes, in India about one, and in Africa less than one tonne each” (see: ).

Australia is currently producing 43 tonnes each per annum (including fossil fuel exports) and according to the public committed Rudd Labor scenario projects 65 tonnes each per annum by 2050 i.e a 50% INCREASE.

11. Rudd Australia greenhouse pollution scenarios

As indicated above (#1) the “solid”, “committed” Rudd Labor Policy indicates “total annual fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution (million tonnes per year )” of 910 (2007), 1,277 (2020) and 2,122 (2050).

However it is salutary to consider the scenario if Rudd Labor accepted ”25% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050 - “total annual fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution (million tonnes per year )” would be 910 (2007), 915 (2020) and 1,371 (2050).

If Rudd Labor accepted”40% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050 - “total annual fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution (million tonnes per year )” would be 910 (2007), 877 (2020) and 1,371 (2050).

Even under Rudd Labor’s “20% renewable by 2020” and “”60% on 2000 levels by 2050”, the “domestic annual fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution (million tonnes per year )” would be 345 (2000), 424 (2007), 443 (2020) and 138 (2050).

12. Rudd Australia greenhouse pollution scenarios - per capita projections

As indicated above (#1) the “solid” Rudd Labor Policy indicates “total annual per capita pollution (TAPCP, tonnes per person per year)” of 43 (2007), 56 (2020) and 65 (2050);

If Rudd Labor accepted ”25% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050” , “total annual per capita pollution (TAPCP, tonnes per person per year)” would be 43 (2007), 44 (2020) and 65 (2050).

If Rudd Labor accepted “40% on 1990 levels by 2020” the “total annual per capita pollution (TAPCP, tonnes per person per year)” would be 43 (2007), 42 (2020) and 65 (2050).

Even under Rudd Labor’s CURRENTLY PROPOSED “20% renewable by 2020” and “”60% reduction on 2000 levels by 2050” the “DOMESTIC annual per capita pollution (DAPCP, tonnes per person per year)” would be 18 (2000), 21 (2007) and 6.6 (2050) (still nearly twice that of China in 2004).

13. Who pays? Australia benefits from CO2 pollution, the World suffers

I repeat that one of the world's leading bioethicists Professor Peter Singer (Princeton University and University of Melbourne) is unequivocal in his expert judgment that “We are responsible not only for what we do but also for what we could have prevented… We should consider the consequences both of what we do and what we decide not to do.”

(Singer, P. (2000), “Writings on an Ethical Life”, Ecco Press, New York; ppxv-xvi).

Unfortunately there is a major bipartisan agreement in Australia to ignore the global cost of Australia’s world #1 coal exports. The Australian Green proposal in the recent federal election campaign to rapidly phase out this highly irresponsible and planet-threatening industry was howled down by both the Bush-ite Coaltion and the neo-Bush-ite Labor Party.

At the next elections the Bush-ite Coalition will still have the support of about half the voters yet the former Coalition PM described as “crazy” the Rudd Labor proposal to cut emissions in 2050 to 60% of the 2000 value (a proposal that, as shown in #11 and #12 above, falls so far short of what is needed that Rudd Labor might just as well have not bothered except for the purpose of garnering the votes of the gullible).

According to the 2007 IPCC Synthesis report, unaddressed CO2 pollution and global warming will have a devastating effect on global malnutrition and poverty (see: ). According the Professor David Pimentel (2004), global malnutrition and poverty will be an “unimaginable” problem by 2054 (see: ), already pollution of the soil, water and air kills about 40% of the world’s population and 57% of the world’s population of 6.5 billion is already malnourished (see: ).

Already 16 million people due avoidably each year (9.6 million being under-5 year old infants) on a Spaceship Earth dominated by a profligate and unresponsive First World (see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: ) – and Australia is on a per capita basis is one of the world’s worst offenders. As indicated above, according to Professor James Lovelock FRS unaddressed global warming will kill 6 billion people this century – Climate Genocide (“intent to destroy in whole or in part” according to Article 2 of the UN Genocide Convention: )

14. Who pays? The true environmental and human cost of coal-based electricity can be over 4 times the present market cost

According to a Ministry of Energy Report from Ontario, Canada, coal plants kill 668 people per year in Ontario (population 12.7 million), and cause 1,100 emergency room visits, and more than 300,000 minor illnesses per year. These and previous findings by the Ontario Medical Association were behind bi-partisan will to close Ontario’s coal-fired electricity plants. This Report estimated that a “market” cost of about 4 cents/kWh increases to a “true cost” of about 16 cents/kWh (see: ): “The study estimated that the total net present value of coal-fired generation is costing Ontario $0.164 CAD/kWh. Environmental and health costs accounted for 77% to total generation costs”.

15. “True cost” of fossil fuels versus bearable cost, corporate/government-determined cost and A$10 billion pa subsidies for Australian fossil fuel burning

While the “true cost” of coal-based electricity can be over 4 times the “market” cost, this will be ignored in corporate, government and diplomatic “horse-trading” to set carbon price – just as society in practice ignores the “annual death rate” due to cigarette smoking (about 1,000 per million) or due to cars (about 100 per million) in assessing the “true cost” of tobacco or cars. Extrapolating from Ontario, the annual death rate from coal-fired power generation is about 50 per million.

If the true environmental and human cost of fossil fuel-derived power were taken into account then (a) economics would dictate “keep fossil fuels in the ground” (as advocated by the Australian Greens and by George Monbiot:,,2225387,00.html ), (b) subsidies would be immediately removed and (c) compensation ordered by the courts for the victims of this technological perversion (as has happened already in relation to victims of industrial use of asbestos).

16. Renewables are the way – keep fossil fuels in the ground

Here are some estimates of the cost in Australian cents per kilowatt-hour (Ac/kWh) of various sources of electricity (for a detailed discussion see “Renewables: how the numbers stack up” in New Matilda: ):

3-4 — coal, Australia;

18 — the real cost of coal, taking into account the environmental and health impact; according to a conservative Canadian Ontario Ministry of Energy Report (CAN$0.164);

15 — nuclear via the UK’s newest Sizewell B plant;

7.5-8.5 — wind power, Australia;

15 — concentrated solar power or CSP;

25-45 — standard silicon-based photovoltaics (PVs).

However recent advances means we must add the following to the list:

4 – the price of solar PV is set to fall dramatically to compete directly with the current “market price” of coal due to balloon, sliver and non-silicon PV technology advances. The non-silicon organic thin film technology developed by US Nobel Laureate Alan Heeger and his South Korean colleagues will reduce the cost of installing photovoltaic (PV) capacity by a factor of 20; the Swiss ETH CIGS non-silicon thin film system may be competitive with coal within 5 years (a related US Nanosolar technology is in mass production: ); Australian sliver silicon PV technology will drop silicon solar panel costs threefold. In particular, the Californian balloon solar capture technology is predicted to make PV solar competitive with “market price” coal by 2010 (see “Solar energy & the end of war. US balloon technology to slash solar energy cost 90% by 2010”: ).

4 – Australian geothermal. According to Professor John Veevers (“The Innamincka hot fractured rock project” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics”, editor Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007; also see energy cost-related related chapters by Dr Gideon Polya “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality”, Dr Mark Diesendorf “A sustainable energy future for Australia”, and Martin Mahy “Hydrogen Minibuses”): “Modelled costs are 4 cents per kilowatt hour, plus half to 1 cent for transmission to grid. This compares with 3.5 cents for black coal, 4 cents for brown coal, 4.2 cents for gas, but all with uncosted emissions. Clean coal, the futuristic technology of coal gasification combined with CO2 sequestration or burial, yet to be demonstrated, comes in at 6.5 cents, and solar and wind power at 8 cents.”

Further, wave, tidal, biomass and biofuel energy technologies are renewable technologies competitive with the “true cost” of fossil fuels. Australia’s huge reserves of economic geothermal power are expertly assessed to have the capacity to provide most of Australia’s energy needs for the best part of a millennium and Australia is blessed with huge solar, tidal, wave and wind resources.

17. Nuclear is not an option

The Bush-ite Coalition had an unerring knack of being resolutely incorrect or in denial about so many crucial matters – anthropogenic climate change, the reasons for war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the terrorist threat to Australia, and the cost of meeting the climate change crisis. They are also incorrect in relation to the nuclear option. As summarized in #16 above the nuclear option is more expensive than current renewable wind and geothermal technologies and as expensive as current concentrated solar technology. Further, the FULL nuclear cycle (from uranium mining and processing to waste disposal and plant de-commissioning) can be as expensive in terms of CO2 emissions as a gas-fired power station – and we still have the intractable security and waste disposal problems.

18. Mandated efficient energy PROVISION as well as USAGE

Australia has mandated replacement of incandescent globes with high efficiency electric lights over the next year or so. If Australia can legislatively mandate efficient energy USAGE it should also mandate the highest efficiency, lowest REAL cost energy PROVISION - currently geothermal, followed by wind with both of these set to be shortly supplanted by exciting low-cost solar technologies.

Failure of Australia to mandate minimum price energy provision simply reflects entrenched dishonesty and corruption in our society. This is briefly discussed further below in relation to the Australian and global impact of fossil fuel burning.

19. Oil, strategic hegemony and 5-8 million post-invasion excess deaths in the Bush Wars in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories

The strategic importance of the Middle East in terms of oil and global hegemony is the core reason for the Bush Asian Wars that have so far been associated with 5-8 million post-invasion excess deaths in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories. This explanation has been argued cogently by outstanding anti-war humanitarian Professor Noam Chomsky (from 63-Nobel- Laureate Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT) in an article entitled “Imminent Crises: Threats and Opportunities ” in which he says of the Middle East : “the huge energy resources of the region were recognized by Washington sixty years ago as a “stupendous source of strategic power,” the “strategically most important area of the world,” and “one of the greatest material prizes in world history.”[reference] 1 Control over this stupendous prize has been a primary goal of U.S. policy ever since, and threats to it have naturally aroused enormous concern.”

Total post-invasion excess deaths in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories now stand at about 5-8 million. There has been a horrendous human cost of the ongoing Palestinian Genocide, Iraqi Genocide and Afghan Genocide (post-invasion excess deaths 0.3 million, 1.5-2 million and 3-6 million, respectively; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths total 0.2 million, 0.6 million and 2.2 million, respectively; and refugees total 7 million, 4.5 million and 4 million, respectively) (updated figures from MWC News).

However there is a further huge cost in the US$2.5 trillion accrual cost of the Bush wars (according to 2001 Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph Stiglitz) that has recently been updated to $3.5 trillion by a Congressional Report (see: ) ; the $2.6 trillion post-1956 accrual cost of US aid for Zionist colonization of Palestine, Lebanon and Syria (see: ); the huge human cost of the US-expanded opiate trade – 0.6 million post-2001 global opiate drug-related deaths (about 2,000 in Australia) due to US Alliance restoration of the Taliban-destroyed Afghan opium industry from about 5% of world market share in 2001 to 93% in 2007; and huge diversion of financial support from alleviation of global warming-exacerbated poverty (the “War on Terror” has cost Australia alone about $20 billion in corporate and government domestic security measures and billions more in overseas military deployments).

20. Huge environmental cost and environmental economic cost of fossil fuel burning and deforestation for Australia and the World

It has been estimated by Balmford et al in the prestigious scientific journal Science (see “Economic reasons for preserving wild nature”: ) that for a variety of “biomes” (ecological systems) the total economic value (TEV) is about 50% greater when the resource is used sustainably as opposed to destructive conversion. Further, these scientists have found that the economic benefit from preserving what is left of wild nature is OVER 100 TIMES greater than the cost of preservation.

However these estimates are IGNORED by Lib-Lab Australian Governments in the interests of “current jobs” and corporations as we see in the ongoing deforestation of Victoria and Tasmania. The true economic value of State-owned assets are not being considered – these citizen-owned public resources are effectively being given away to private corporations.

These ugly realities of dishonesty and environmental vandalism reach a pinnacle in relation to greenhouse gas pollution. The polluters are not being charged the full cost of what they are destroying. Indeed quite the reverse is happening – fossil fuel burning is actually SUBSIDIZED to the tune of about $10 billion annually in Australia (see:,25197,22873649-12377,00.html ).

A further concrete Australian example is the threat to the Great Barrier Reef from global warming as spelled out in the latest 2007 IPCC Synthesis Report (see: ) – this is of course a major tourist asset in an economic sense.

21. Biofuels represent a perversion with 57% malnourished, grain production peaking and grain price rising due to Biofuels and Meat

As outlined in #13, According to the 2007 IPCC Synthesis report, unaddressed CO2 pollution and global warming will have a devastating effect on global malnutrition and poverty (see: According the Professor David Pimentel (2004) of Cornell University, New York, global malnutrition and poverty will be an “unimaginable” problem by 2054 (see: ), already pollution of the soil, water and air kills about 40% of the world’s population and 57% of the world’s population of 6.5 billion is already malnourished (see: ).

Already 16 million people due avoidably each year (9.6 million being under-5 year old infants) on a Spaceship Earth dominated by a profligate and unresponsive First World (see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: ) – and Australia on a per capita basis is one of the world’s worst offenders.

Biofuels are formally CO2 neutral and renewable – however in the context of horrendous global poverty, a major decline in grain production, huge increases in grain price and increasing diversion of grain for biofuel generation (see: ) this is a perversion and a crime against humanity, the more so when alternative cheap, efficient renewable energy options are technically already available (see #16).

22. Oil is the feedstock for sophisticated organic chemical industry – it should NOT be burned

Forty years ago my organic chemistry lecturer told us that we are actually BURNING the feedstock for sophisticated chemical industry, the material used to make pharmaceuticals and plastics that dominate modern life. Today this wanton destruction of an immensely valuable resource is continuing. The “real cost” and the “real value” are ignored because of the political might of fossil fuel burning corporations.

I am acutely aware of this travesty as the author of a huge pharmacological reference text (Gideon Polya, “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds. A pharmacological reference guide to sites of action and biological effects” CRC Press, Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003: ).

23. Deforestation can be halved by investing US$15 billion per annum

Further to the points made in relation to environmental impacts of global warming, deforestation contributes about 15-20% to increased net global greenhouse gas production annually. Yet according to Sir Nicholas Stern: "For $10-15bn (£4.8-7.2bn) per year, a programme could be constructed that could stop up to half the deforestation” (see: ).

In addition to playing a vital role in global temperature homeostasis, forest ecosystems are sources for invaluable pharmaceutical resources (see my recent huge reference book: Gideon Polya, “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds. A pharmacological reference guide to sites of action and biological effects”, CRC Press, Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003: ).

24. Climate criminal countries such as Australia face Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs and Reparations Demands

The science and technology has been well reviewed internationally (see the 2007 IPCC Reports: and a recent review of renewable scenarios: ) as indeed has the economic of climate change via the Stern Report (see: ).

The Rudd Government intransigence in not supporting the draft Bali proposal of “25-40% reduction by 2020” is ostensibly because of the economic review by Professor Garnaut due in first draft in mid-2008 and presumably finalized by late 2008.

Yet one boundary condition of Professor Garnaut’s report is already clear – in his own words (December 2007) Australia will be pulling its full weight” which means (if one accepts “all men are created equal” ) that Australia achieves “annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution” parity with the rest of the world. However the other boundary condition (perceived “affordability” in the light of Australia-specific economic analysis) is completely uncertain for the simple reason that the World may decide to take action against climate criminal countries such as Australia and the US through imposition of Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs and Reparations Demands.

Indeed a SOLUTION to greedy, climate criminal US, Canada, Japan and Australian intransigence at Bali would be international Sanctions and Boycotts or, more precisely, "Green Tariffs" and Reparations Demands that recognize the REAL environmental and human cost of goods produced by these irresponsible and intrinsically RACIST climate criminal countries.

It is notable that these 4 countries have ANOTHER intrinsically racist and genocidal activity in common - various participation in the genocidal Bush Asian Wars - post-invasion excess deaths in the Iraqi Genocide and Afghan Genocide now total 1.5-2 million and 3-6 million, respectively; post-invasion under-5 infant deaths total 0.6 million and 2.2 million, respectively; and refugees total 4.5 million and about 4 million, respectively) (see: "Solar energy & the end of war": ).

What Australia and the US are doing is far more serious and intrinsically racist than the crimes of Apartheid South Africa, a system that was eventually disposed of through international Sanctions and Boycotts. Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs and Reparations Demands may well be applied to Australia, the US and like climate criminal countries that are threatening the Planet with climate genocide. Indeed a model for this comes from outstanding American academic, writer, editor and economist, Father of Reaganomics Dr Paul Craig Roberts who explicitly demands that the world should stop the “Iraqi genocide” by “dumping the dollar” (see: ). The World is evidently doing just that – and may well act similarly towards an intransigent Australia, on a per capita basis the world’s worst developed country greenhouse gas polluter.


On a per capita basis and including our fossil fuel exports, Australia is the developed country with the highest greenhouse gas pollution. Thus 2004 data from the US Energy Information Administration reveal that “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution” in tonnes CO2/person is 19.2 (for Australia; 40 if you include Australia’s coal exports), 19.7 (the US), 18.4 (Canada), 9.9 (Japan), 4.2 (the World), 3.6 (China), 1.0 ( India) and 0.25 (for Bangladesh).

The Rudd Labor commitment to “20% renewables by 2020”, “”60% reduction on 2000 greenhouse gas pollution by 2050” and no constraint on fossil fuel extraction for export ACTUALLY means (based on US Energy Information Administration data, assuming current constant coal, gas and CO2 pollution growth rates, constant population and including Australia’s fossil fuel EXPORTS) “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO2 emission in tonnes per person per year” of 43 (2007), 56 (2020) and 65 (2050).

If Australia continues to refuse to act on both domestic and exported greenhouse gas pollution it will very likely face international action through Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs and Reparations Demands. The Rudd “Garnaut Report” excuse for inaction at Bali is contradicted by Professor Garnaut’s recent very clear and highly ethical declaration that ““Australia will be pulling its full weight” which, given the equality of all Men, surely means massive reduction of CO2 pollution to per capita parity with countries such as India and China.

Simple notional calculations tell us that Australia could completely replace its current 50 Gigawatt electricity generating capacity with wind power within 10 years by simply investing its current $10 billion annual fossil fuel subsidies into wind farms (noting of course, that other renewable options are now ALREADY much cheaper than the “true cost” of fossil-fuel-based electricity).

In short, the world is facing a Climate Emergency and a Sustainability Emergency that requires urgent action NOW to REDUCE atmospheric CO2 from a current 383 ppm to a level of 300-350 ppm required for biosphere sustainability. The science, technology and economics all instruct (subject to transition and related qualifications) that we should keep the fossil fuels in the ground – indeed we need to have a NEGATIVE atmospheric CO2 growth.

This has been written in the public interest.

Dr Gideon Polya
Melbourne, Australia

Dr Gideon Polya published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003). He has just published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: and ); see also his contribution “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007): ).

Truth, Reason and Words having failed in the Western Murdochracies, as an artist as well as a scientist he has painted several huge paintings relating to the Climate Emergency, namely “Terra”: and “Apocalypse Now”: .


The class will discuss possible solutions: zero tolerance to individuals, corporations and countries threatening flora and fauna extinction (notably Great Barrier Reef and other coral reefs after 450 ppm atmospheric CO2 due to ocean acidification); informing others (Internet, Alternative media); “you are threatening our children and grandchildren”; legal action (damages; action against climate criminals and climate genocide e.g. UK Bring Climate Criminals to Justice (BCCJ): ; Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs, Reparations Demands.


i. Atomic structure & chemistry

We have already considered the structure of atoms and the basis of unstable, radioactive isotopes in Section 2 vi “Atomic structure and chemistry.”

ii. Isotopes & radionuclides

There are 3 isotopes of Hydrogen, H-1, H-2 (Deuterium, D) and H-3 (Tritium, T).

The atomic structures of these 3 isotopes of H are summarized below:

1p+ + 1 e- = H-1 (often denoted 1H)

1p+ + 1n + 1e- = H-2 (Deuterium; chemically like H-1 because the chemistry is determined heavily by the outer electrons)

1p+ + 2n + 1e- = H-3 (Tritium, again chemically like H; however having 2 extra neutrons squeezed into the nucleus makes it unstable and so Tritium is a radioactive isotope, a radionuclide, that disintegrates randomly to generate a Helium isotope He-3 with the release of an electron (a negatively charged β particle).

H-1 (the most abundant form of Hydrogen) has an atomic weight (A) of about 1 (the atomic weight of C-12 is taken as 12.0000 and atomic weight is defined as the ratio of the mass of an atom of an element to 1/12 the mass of a C-12 atom); the Atomic Number (Z, the number of protons, and hence the number of electrons in the neutral atom) = 1; and the number of neutrons (N) =0.

Thus for H-1, A=1, Z=1 and N=0.

For H-2 (D) , A=2, Z=1 and N=1.

For H-3 (T), A=3, Z=1 and N=2.

Similarly Carbon-12 (C-12), the most abundant form of C has A=12, Z=6 and N=12-6=6. However C-13 has A=13, Z=6 and N=13-6=7 (i.e. one extra neutron).

C-14 (the radioactive isotope of Carbon has 2 extra neutrons and is formed in the atmosphere from Nitrogen N-14 from bombardment by cosmic radiation) has A=14, Z=6, and N=14-6=8).

To reiterate, isotopes of elements are formed by extra neutrons; the number of protons (equal to the number of electrons) determines the chemical behavior; and extra neutrons can cause nuclear instability leading to nuclear disintegration (nuclear decay) with ejection of radioactive fragments i.e. radioactivity.

iii. Radioactivity

The Atomic number Z = Σ (sum of ) protons; and neutron number N = Σ neutrons.

Nuclear stability obtains with N or Z equal to 2, 8, 20, 28, 50, 82 and 126 (“magic numbers” and atoms are particularly stable when both N=Z with “double magic numbers”; these give closure of nuclear shells (cf electronic shells) e.g.

H-1 – N=0, Z=1, 1 e-

H-2 – N=1, Z=1, 1 e-

He-4, N=2, Z=2, 2 e-

C-12, N=6, Z=6 (Σe- = 2+4=6)

C-13, N=7, Z=6, 6 e-

C-14, N=8, Z=6, 6 e- (radioactive)

At low Z, N ≈ Z for nuclear stability (e.g. C-12).

At high Z need more neutrons to over come p+-p+ repulsion e.g. a lead (Pb) stable isotope: 126n, 82p+, 82e- .

Decay is spontaneous with activation energy coming from nuclear energy level fluctuations yielding various radioactive products:

α particles – He-4 nuclei (2n + 2p)

β particles – e- + a neutrino or positron e+ + a neutrino

Inverse β decay: capture of e- so that p+ + e- → n

γ decay – high energy electromagnetic radiation, photons, γ radiation

NB Albert Einstein’s E=mc2 where c=the speed of light ≈ 300,000 km/sec.

iv. In the Beginning …

15 billion years ago; Big Bang.

+ 1 μsec, quarks + gluons → universe expands, quarks & gluons → neutrons & protons → He, He → cooling (now 2.7oK (-270.5 oC) → condensation → formation of heavy nuclei in stars → supernovae explosions → interstellar gas → condensation to form new stars, solar systems, planets. We come from the stars.

v. Nuclear structure

Phases analogous to 3 phases of water – solid (ice), liquid (water), gas (steam) – normal nuclei (liquid analogue), extremely dense neutron stars (solid), nucleon gas, quark-gluon plasma (gas).

3 major nuclear models: Liquid drop Model (like a liquid, explains deformation and fission); Shell Model (quantum energy states; cf different shells or orbitals and energy levels of electrons); Collective Model (like a charged drop of liquid; like the Liquid drop Model).

Major components: heavy quarks (point-like, charged), very light leptons (neutrino with no charge, unit charge electrons [-], positrons [+]); up- and down-quarks and electrons give ordinary matter. Complex family of subatomic particles.

vi. Radioactive decay

Unstable nuclei decay to more stable state with release of radiation (mainly α particles, β particles and γ electromagnetic radiation) e.g.

H-3 → He-3 + β

C-14 → N-14 + β

P-32 → S-32 + β

Nuclear transformation of elements (it eluded the alchemists!). Distinguish radioactive disintegrations (decay) by number of events, half-life, energy distribution of particles, transmissibility, biological effect of the radiation.

Spontaneous, random decay but activation energy from quantum fluctuations in nuclei. Induced decay in nuclear fission and fusion. Products can be unstable to give a decay chain and even multiple decay chains (different modes of decay).

1 Becquerel = 1 Bq = 1 disintegration (transformation, decay event) /sec

1 disintegration per minute = 1 dpm = 60 Bq

1 Curie = 1 Ci = radiation from 1 g of pure radium = 3.7 x 1010 Bq

1 μCi = 3.7 x 10 10 x 10 -6 Bq = 3.7 a 104 x 60 dpm = 2.22 x 106 dpm.

vii. History

1896, Henri Becquerel: X-rays and radiation from Uranium (U) pass through black paper to darken photographic film.

Marie and Pierre Curie, Ernest Rutherford (New Zealand) – different kinds of radiation, exponential radioactive decay; electric and magnetic fields distinguished:

α particles – He-4 nuclei (2n + 2p) (large, charged, 2+, low penetrance);

β particles – e- (tiny, charge -1, intermediate penetrance depending upon energy);

γ decay – highly penetrative, neutral (0).

1896, Nikola Tesla burnt fingers with X-rays. Marie Curie ultimately died of aplastic anaemia; untimely deaths of workers painting luminous radium dials.

1920s, Hermann Mueller – genetic and cancer risk (1947 Nobel Prize).

1938, fission demonstrated by Otto Hahn (Germany).

1945, atomic bombs used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Post-war, atomic bombs (U-235 and Pu-239 bombs), thermonuclear weapons (H bombs) , nuclear power (first commercial plant Calder Hall, Sellafield, UK in 1956; big boost after 1973 oil crisis), nuclear stand-off, MAD and Nuclear Proliferation treaty.

1967, Israeli acquisition of nuclear weapons with US-UK assistance;

1981, Israel bombed Iraqi nuclear reactor;

2007, threats of US or Israeli nuclear bombing of Iran

viii. Quantitation of decay kinetics

Half life = t1/2 = time for half the radioactive material to have decayed.

Mean life time (τ) = average lifetime of a particle

A = -dN/dt = λN

Where A=total activity (dps), λ=decay constant, N=number of particles

P(decay) =rate of decay = -dN/N = λdt

Nt =Noe –λt

t1/2 =ln2/ λ =τln2 = 0.693τ = 0.693/ λ

λt = ln N0/Nt = 2.303 log10N0/Nt

ix. Radiation damage

α particles – He-4 nuclei (2n + 2p), large and damaging but readily blocked

β particles – e- and e+, small, less damaging, stopped by thin lead

γ radiation, E-M radiation, high penetration, thick lead needed to stop

AVOID ingestion, inhalation, use gloves, dispose safely.

AVOID exposure shielding, sequestration, safe practice, radiation badges to assess monthly dose.

Low doses – increase cancer risk (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and genetic risk.

High doses kill in weeks, months (Chernobyl).

Very high doses kill in days (critical mass accidents, Litvinenko murder in London).

Genetic risks much lower than previously thought – no statistically significant effects in Hiroshima and Nagasaki victims (possible explanations: genetic repair mechanisms; gamete i.e. ova and sperm selection and differential survival; spontaneous abortion).

x. Ionizing radiation, amount, absorbed dose and dose equivalent

(a) Amount of radioactivity – disintegrations per unit time

1 Ci = radioactivity from 1 g of Ra-226

1 μCi = 2.22 x 10 6 dpm

1 Ci = 3.7 x 10 10 dps

1 Bq = 1 dps = 2.703 x 10 -11 Ci

(b) Absorbed dose – energy deposited per unit mass

cgs (cm, gram, second) system – 1 rad = 100 erg/g

SI system – 1 gray (Gy) = 1 Joule/kg = 100 rad (NB 1 erg = 107 joules)

(NB 1 Gy = 107 roentgen, the earliest unit of dosage)

(c) Biological dose – dose equivalent, relates to biological damage

cgs: rem

SI: sievert (Sv) = 100 rem

Quality factor Q - 1 for tiny electrons, X-rays & γ rays, 20 for large α particles (He-4 nuclei , 2n + 2p) and 5-20 for neutrons (large)

Dose equivalent H = Q x D (dose) = Q x rads = rems

Dose equivalent H = Q x D (dose) = Q x grays = sieverts = 100 rems

xi. Radiation in natural environment

(a) Human body

K-40- t1/2 1.277 bn years, 4,000 Bq (100 nCi)

Rb-87 – t1/2 47.5 bn years, 600 Bq (16 nCi)

Th-232 – t1/2 14.05 bn years, 0.08 Bq (0.002 nCi)

U-238 (t1/2, 4.468 bn years, 0.4 Bq (0.01 nCi)

(NB Pb-210, Po-210 are progeny of U-238 and more abundant)

(b) Oceans: 1.4 x 10 21 L, 4 x 10 11 Ci K-40, 1 x 109 Ci U-238

(c) Air: Cosmic rays convert N-14 to C-14 (t1/2 5,730 years) [geologically trapped C-14 decays; atmospheric C-14 formed continually from N-14 via cosmic radiation – permits carbon dating].

(d) Biggest environmental source (Westerners): Rn-222 in homes (from Ra-226 in soil) – 2.0 mSv /year (200 mrem/yr)

(e) Total (Westerner) 3.6 mSv/year (360 mrem/year) i.e. about 4 mSv/yr (400 mrem/yr).

xii. Measurement of radioactivity

Geiger counter (radiation ionizes gas molecules → current flow to electrode → current amplified → output) (Gas Flow Proportional Counter variant).

Scintillation counter (decay products excite solvent and fluor molecules → emit light → detected by photomultipliers → analyzed → cpm (counts per minute); knowing the actual efficiency of counting (= cpm/dpm; diminished by Quenching) ) one can determine the actual dpm (Liquid scintillation counting spectrometry –determine spectrum, identify radionuclides from characteristic n versus energy spectra):

Number of events



Photographic film – radiation workers have badges , the film is developed monthly to assess radiation exposure and safe practice

xiii. Effects of radiation

Ionizing radiation produces chemically reactive ions (X+, Y-) that can damage DNA giving rise to cancer and mutations.

Background dosage is 4 mSv/year.

A low dose is <>

The “linearity hypothesis” says that unlike the situation with chemical toxicology, there is no “threshold” for deleterious effects of radiation i.e. right down to very low levels, the more you get above “background” the greater the harm.

For example it is estimated that the cancer risk (P) is 0.05/Sv = 0.00005 / mSv = i.e. 5/100,000 people exposed to 1 mSv “extra” radiation will get cancer.

While being generally accepted as a thumb-rule, the “linearity hypothesis” is controversial and other models for low dose effects have been suggested:




Radiation dose above background

Thus the evidence for low dose effects is equivocal (except for increased leukaemia near some nuclear power stations e.g. Sellafield, UK).

Nevertheless the US EPA estimated 7,000-30,000 US lung cancers/yr due to Rn-222 i.e. an upper amount of 30,000/300 million = 0.1% of Americans could possibly get lung cancer from this cause annually (equivalent to 29,000 annual US Gun-related deaths).

Three Mile Island (release of radioactivity) – maximum dose to members of the public 1 mSv (100 rem); estimated total dose off-site was 20 person-Sv; 0.05 cancers per Sv implies 20 person.Sv x 0.05 cancers/Sv = 1 extra cancer in a population of 2 million (about 10% of whom are likely to get some cancer in their lifetime).

Chernobyl – huge release of radioactivity that spread over Europe as far a as Cumbria in North West England. The collective dose for Europe over 50 years = 930,000 person.Sv; 930,000 person.Sv x 0.05/Sv = 47,000 cancers.

However 29,000 of these were outside the USSR and the average dose was 580,000 Sv for 490 million people i.e. an average of 1.2 mSv extra (only a small amount above background). In comparison to the estimated 29,000 EXTRA cancer deaths calculated for Europe outside the USSR, 88 million “normal” cancer deaths were expected.

xiv. Radiation Protection Standards

In view of the deadly the effects of high doses of radiation and the finite increased cancer risk from very low levels, medical authorities have generated safety standards of maximum permitted exposures for radiation workers and others. Thus the occupational limits are 50 mSv/year (5,000 mrem/year); the general licensed premises (excluding medical) limits are 1 mSv/year (100 mrem/year) and the indoor limits in relation to EPA action over Rn-222 are 8 mSv/year (800 mSv/year).

The standards also relate to exposure of different parts of the body (soft tissue being much more vulnerable than, for example, the fingers). Standards are also set out for medical diagnostic doses that can be very high as compared to maximum permitted occupational doses.

xv. Nuclear power from nuclear fission

Nuclear power stations all involve nuclear fission (noting that there are nuclear fusion – mimicking what happens on the Sun – experimental systems on a tiny scale and that heat from radioactive decay has some small-scale applications e.g. atomic batteries for space probes).

U-238 is the predominant form of naturally-occurring U (99.2745% U-238, 0.72% U-235, 0.005% U-234)

U enrichment involves pulverization of UO3/UO2 → conversion to gaseous UF6 → gaseous diffusion and centrifugal separation [laser-based Australian technology being developed]) → re-conversion to UO3/UO2 → pellets → U-235-enriched U for fuel.

U-235 (or P-239) decay → neutrons, n → impact on U-235 → more fission products (chain reaction) , more neutrons plus heat (Albert Einstein’s E=mc2 ).

The Nuclear chain reaction has to be CONTROLLED or moderated (U-235 or P239 atomic bombs – explosive formation of critical mass of these radionuclides with explosive chain reaction).

Energy release as heat → steam → turbines → generation of electricity.

xvi. Classification of nuclear power stations

A. Types of nuclear reactors

1. Nuclear fission – general mechanism; mostly using U-235-enriched U (Th-232 for future)

(a) Thermal reactors (majority) – neutron moderating materials slow neutrons down → neutrons “thermalized” → greater Probability of fissioning U-235 rather than capture by U-238.

(b) Fast nuclear reactors (very few as yet) – non-moderated, fast neutrons, use enriched U (+/- Pu-239), less radioactive waste, expensive, generate P-239, several fast breeders (US, France, one in Japan had a serious accident).

2. Nuclear fusion – as in the Sun, hydrogen fusion reaction; only experimental so far on tiny scale at vast expense.

3. Passive radioactive decay – heat, thermoelectric generators, atomic batteries (e.g. on space probes).

B. Moderation (to slow neutrons)

Moderation by Graphite (a form of Carbon) or water (heavy D2O or light H2O).

Graphite or D2O moderation yields better thermalizing and enables use of un-enriched U (0.72% U-235) rather than expensive enriched U (4% U-235).

C. Coolants

1. Water-cooled

(a) pressure water water (large pressure vessel, most commercial and naval reactors) or pressurized channels.

(b) Boiling water reactor

(c ) Pool-type reactor

2. Liquid metal – water is a moderator (slows neutrons) and accordingly cannot be used in fast reactors; liquid metal (e.g. sodium, lead) for fast reactors.

3. Gas cooled – He (monoatomic), N2, CO2 ; some use hot gas to drive turbines or to heat steam to drive turbines.

D. Generation - Reactors can be classified as Generation I, II, III, IV & V (see later).

E. State phase of the fuel (i.e. solid, liquid or gas)

The fuel can be solid (typically presently ), fluid or gas (future developments).

F Purposes of the reactor

1. Electricity generation (power plants)

2. Propulsion (nuclear ships, proposed rocket engines)

3. Other energy uses (desalination, heat, Hydrogen production for the H economy)

4. Transmutation

(a) Breeder reactors (fast reactors, unmoderated neutrons, U-235 → Pu-239 → makes more fissile materials than it uses, once running it can be fed with un-enriched U, however civil rights & terrorism dangers of a Plutonium Society)

(b) Americium, Am -241, in smoke detectors; Co-60 (irradiation, biocidal), Mo-99 and Tc-99 (medical)

(c ) weapons grade Pu-239 (for Pu-239 atomic bombs & triggers for thermonuclear H fusion bombs i.e. H bombs)

(d) sources of neutrons and positron (e+) radiation (neutron activation analysis; K-Ar dating: when rocks are heated to the melting point, any Ar-40 contained in them is released into the atmosphere. When the rock recrystallizes it becomes impermeable to gases again. As the K-40 in the rock decays into Ar-40, the gas is trapped in the rock.)

(e) research reactors → radioisotopes for medical diagnosis (e.g. PET scans), industry, bio-medical research, biochemistry; e.g. Calvin cycle of photosynthesis elucidated using C-14 as a tracer for where the [C-14]CO2 goes in metabolism).

xvii. Current technologies

Nuclear fission reactors of various kinds involve generation of heat through controlled nuclear chain reaction in a critical mass of fissile material (in the case of a bare sphere the critical mass is about 50 kg for U-235 and 10 kg for Pu-239). [NB natural radiation decay sources are used for a thermoelectric effect for pacemakers, lighthouses, space probes]. They can also be classified as Generation I, II, III, IV, and V (see later). * = fast breeders.

A. Pressurized water reactors (PWRs) – cooled and moderated by high pressure water; most are thermal reactors (e.g. the Harrisburg 3 Mile Island Reactor); latest Advanced Pressurized Water reactors (Europe); US naval reactors.

B. Boiling water reactors. – a major group cooled and moderated by water, lower pressure, efficient (but increased risk of water escape).

C. Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) – fuel in hundreds of pressure tubes; can be re-fuelled at full power; e.g. Canadian CANDU; natural U fuelled.

D*. Reaktor Bolshoy High Power Chemical reactor (RBMK) – Soviet breeder reactor i.e. yields Pu-239; water-cooled, graphite moderator; pressure tubes instead of pressure vessel; unstable, unsafe – too large for containment buildings (Chernobyl disaster).

E*. Gas Cooled Reactor (GCR) and Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGCR) – graphite moderated, gas cooled, very efficient; e.g. Magnox (UK); decommissioning very expensive.

F*. Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) – unmoderated , yields fast neutrons, yields more fuel (P-239) than it consumes, low pressure, minimal containment e.g. Superphénix (France), Fermi I (US), Monju (Japan; sodium leak accident in 1995); (a) sodium cooled (decreased corrosion, sodium easily obtained but metallic Na + H20 → explosion!) and (b) lead cooled (lead inert, high temperature, decreased risk but decommissioning problem because of lead toxicity).

G. Aqueous Homogeneous Reactor (AHR) –uranium dissolved in water (e.g. as Uranium sulphate); smaller scale; corrosion problems; direct isolation of medical isotopes from the solution.

Advanced Reactors in preparation

1. Integral Fast reactor – recycles spent fuel.

2. Pebble Bed Reactor –High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGCR),; high temperatures decrease power output; cooled by He (safer); fuel balls; expensive reprocessing.

3. Small Sealed Transportable Autonomous reactor – safer US fast breeder.

4. Clean and Environmentally Safe Advanced Reactor (CAESAR) – steam as a moderator.

5. Subcritical reactors for safety and stability.

6. Thorium-based reactors – use Th-232 to breed U-233; Th-232 much more abundant than U; lower production of transuranic waste; various Indian reactors (a) Advanced heavy water reactor (heavy water moderated), (b) KAMINI (uses Th-232-derived U-233), (c) Fast Breeder Thorium reactor (generates U-233).

Generation I-V reactors

I – original, now retired.

II – III – most of the above.

IV – Gas Cooled Fast Reactor, Lead Cooled Fast reactor, Molten Salt Reactor, Sodium-cooled Fast reactor, Supercritical Water reactor (superheated water, efficient) and Very High Temperature Reactor.

V – future developments; Liquid Core Reactor (molten U cooled by gas, for rockets), Gas Core reactor (UF6, H gas), Gas Core EM Reactor (gas core, photomultipliers convert UV light to electricity), Fission Fragment Reactor (decelerates an ion beam of fission products to generate electricity).

Fusion Reactors – the Sun; no experimental fusion reactors have produced more energy than the input energy; > 2050? Of course the Sun works very well and is a million km away. All of the electrons have been ripped away from the nuclei because it is so hot. The nuclei available are mostly 1H, quite a lot of 4He, and a few 2H and 3He and some other nuclei. Reaction: 4 1H + 2 e --> 4He + 2 neutrinos + 6 photons + huge energy release.

xviii. Nuclear cycle

Uranium mined → yellow cake UO2 + UO3 mixture (U3O8) (1000x as radioactive as granite; tailings radioactive) → UF6 → enrichment for U-235 by gaseous diffusion, gas centrifuge or laser technology (being developed) (0.72% U-235 enriched to 4% for most BWRs and PWRs; DU product used a ballast, shells, pyrophoric and EU and Australian ban on military use; DU used by US in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq and by US-Israel in Lebanon) → converted to UO3/UO2 → processed into pellets → fuel rods, tubes or pebbles → used (generating short-lived and long-lived transuranium, actinide products) → reprocessed → waste disposed of (storage, Synroc etc).

U-235 fissionable by slow (thermal) neutrons; U-238 captures fast neutrons → Pu-239 → further fission. Most thermal reactors use H2O as a moderator; fast reactors have a non-aqueous coolant (sodium, Na, lead, Pb) → breed Pu-239. Full power days limited by need for re-fuelling down time but Pebble Bed, RBMK, Molten Salt, Magnox (pressurised, carbon dioxide-cooled, graphite-moderated fast breeder reactor), AGR and CANDU can be refuelled while running.

Short-lived products (t1/2 in years): Eu-155 (4.76), Kr-85 (1076), Sr-90 (28.9, bone cancer risk), Cs-137 (30.2, NB Chernobyl disaster), Sn-121m (43.9), Sm-151 (90).

Long-lived products (t1/2 in millions of years): Tc-99 (0.211), Sn-126 (0.23), Zr-93 (1.53), Cs-135 (2.3), Pd-107 (6.5), I-129 (15.7), U-235 (700) (NB U-238, 4,500).

Major actinides (t1/2 in years): Pu-238 (87.7), Pu239 (24,110), Pu-240 (6,560), Pu-241(14.4) → Am-241 (432), U-235 (7.0E8), U-238 (4.4E9), Cf-250 (13.1), Cf-252 (2.6), Cm-244 (18.1).

xix. Radioactive waste & NORM

(1). NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material)

Total ocean: 4x10 11 (400 billion) Ci K-40; 1x109 (1 billion) Ci U-238

(2). COAL – U, Th; Th 2.5X >U; radioactivity near coal-fired power stations > near nuclear plants; 1,500 years of coal left at current rates of use.

Coal projections (million of metric tonnes/year):

2000: 4000 (World), 900 (US)

2020: 6,000 (World)

Th & U pollution (metric tonnes/year):

2000, Th: 12.0 (World), 2.5 (US)

2020 Th: 17.5 (World), 4.9 (US)

2000 U: 5.0 (World), 1.0 (US)

2020 U: 8.0 (World), 2.0 (US)

Total world coal (1937-2037) = 578,257 million tonnes (751,735 tonnes U, 5337 tonnes U-235, 1,850,424 tonnes Th)

At 0.00387 mCi/tonne of coal this coal-derived radioactive waste (1937-2037) amounts to 2238 million mCi = 2.238 million Ci

2005 coal production 5,852 million tonnes = 22.6 million mCi = 22,600 Ci

Roughly, 2,238 million mCi/6,500 million = 0.3 mCi/person – similar to the maximum permitted annual dose for medical use of short-lived P-32.

(Data from Alex Gibbard, Oak Ridge National Laboratories).

(3). HISTORICAL TOTAL MAN-PRODUCED , mostly long-lived High Level Waste (so far from nuclear industry, weapons etc) = 100 billion Ci (noting that some of this has a RELATIVELY short half-life) .

(4). Oil & gas:

Ra-226 → Rn-222 (similar boiling point as propane)

(5). Medical use

Tc-99m → Tc-99 (t1/2, 6 hours; kidney scans)

F-18 – (t1/2 110 minutes; F-18-Fluorodeoxyglucose Glucose Positron Emission Tomography, PET scans; 7 mSv cf 0.02 mSv for a chest x-ray, up to 8 mSv for a CT scan of the chest, 2-6 mSv per annum for aircrew).

Y-90 (t1/2 2.7 days; treating lymphoma)

I-131 (t1/2 8.0 days, thyroid function, thyroid cancer treatment)

Sr-89 (t1/2 52 days; treating bone cancer)

Ir-192 (t1/2 74 days, brachytherapy [sealed source next to tumour])

Co-60 (t1/2 5.3 years, brachytherapy, external radiotherapy)

Cs-137 (t1/2 30 years, brachytherapy, external radiotherapy)

Ga-67 (t1/2 78.3 hours, cancer, disease detection)

(6). Industrial & research use (e.g. thickness gauges, radiography, biomedical research tracers e.g. C-14; Stasi used Sc-46 to spy on citizens with lethal consequences)

xx. Radioactive waste disposal

Low Level Waste (LLW) – hospitals, industry, research, nuclear plants; reduce volume if possible; store to reduce radioactivity; shallow land burial in appropriate containers.

High Level Waste (HLW) – from nuclear reactor spent fuel, nuclear weapons manufacture; spent fuel rods stored in pools(allows for short-lived product decay); subsequent re-processing for useful products and waste vitrified and stored in containers.

Nuclear re-processing – Used nuclear fuel initially stored in spent fuel pools or dry casks to allow decay; subsequent re-processing separates usable elements (Pu, U) from spent nuclear fuel to enable (a) recycling as new mixed oxide fuel (MOX) or(b) Pu-239 for weapons.

What to do with the waste:

(1). Synroc vitrification and storage in stable geological zone (late Professor ted Ringwood, Australia).

(2). Geological storage underground (e.g. proposed Yucca Mountain in the US (dormant caldera from super-volcano; problems in general: earthquakes, vulcanism, leakage, groundwater, asteroid impact; ancient water).

(3). Sea disposal (US, USSR, UK etc in the past; now prohibited; biological contamination back to shore; contamination of the whole world).

(4). Islands (leakage to the sea; earthquake and vulcanism problems).

(5). Outer space (expensive and dangerous; space launch accident could seriously contaminate the planet).

xxi. Accidents – there have been many nuclear accidents (reactors, nuclear submarines, transportation accidents).

xxii. Assessment of dangers.

4 mSv /year background radiation; 1 mSv/year maximum extra dose standard (noting that there are big differences in background radiation).

5,000 mSv dose lethal in about 4 weeks.

Pu-239: > 0.008 μCi toxic (bonemarrow); 1 μg Pu-239 particle gives lung cancer

Harry Daghlian, 1946 – exposed to 6.2 kg Pu-239 → 510 rem dose (5.1 Sv) → died 4 weeks later.

Pu-239 inhaled has a LD50 of 5μg/kg ; otherwise Pb (lead)-like toxicity; 5 kg Pu-239 released over Nagasakui; 10s of kgs of Pu-230 deliberately scattered by the British over Maralinga (continuing scandal).

Radioactivity of Pu-239: 17.3 Ci/g, 17.3 mCi/mg; 17.3 μCi/μg (1 μg Pu-239 deadly in lung)

Total high level waste radioactivity from past nuclear activities: 100 billion Ci i.e. 100 billion Ci/6.5 billion people = 15.3 Ci/person = 15.3 million μCi/person ALREADY (NB ignoring decay).

Obviously risk varies with isotopes, exposure, ingestion, accessibility etc.

xiii. Nuclear weapons

(1). U-235 weapons e.g. 15 kiloton (i.e. equivalent explosive power of 15 kilotons of Trinitrotoluene, TNT) Hiroshima bomb (0.1 million dead).

(2). Pu-239 bomb – e.g. 22 kiloton Nagasaki bomb (0.1 million dead).

(3) Thermonuclear fusion (H bomb)- triggered by “fission” bomb, megaton “yield”; several million die immediately or within a day or so within a 60 km radius; millions more die from radioactive fallout and social disruption effects).

(4) Samuel Cohen – neutron bomb – relatively low explosive forces but high neutron yield; destroy people not property.

(5) other bombs.

(6) suitcase bombs (Israelis are the leading developers).

(7) Dirty bombs – conventional explosives to spread radioactive waste; huge volumes and radioactivity of waste; compounded by the fall of the USSR and serious security issues; plutonium economy threats; 100 billion Ci total waste; radioactive contamination not actually threatening to human life could close down CBDs of targeted cities with huge economic disruption and consequent avoidable death.

Annual post-mid-1945 empirical P of a person dying from a nuclear explosion 10 -6 .

xiv. Risk & Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – “5 minutes to midnight”

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (18 Nobel laureates on their advisory board) has set the doomsday clock at “5 minutes to midnight” – however they say (2007): “Primarily because of the actions of the Bush administration the doomsday clock should be at two minutes to midnight”.

1953 – “2 minutes to midnight” (US & USSR exploded thermonuclear H fusion bombs).

1991 – “17 minutes” (end of the Cold War; Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, SALT)

2007: “5 minutes to midnight” (extremely violent and International Law-ignoring US Alliance (including Australia); US violation of various nuclear treaties; threats by the US and Israel to “nuke’ Iran; N Korea bomb, MAD (mutually-assured destruction) still in place).

xxv. History of nuclear weapons threat & treaties

1939 – Otto Hahn (Germany) demonstrated nuclear fission.

1939-1945 – Manhattan Project culminating in the unnecessary U-235 bomb (Hiroshima, 0.1 million dead) and the Pu-239 bomb (Nagasaki, 0.1 million dead).

1949 - first USSR nuclear bomb test

1950-1953 – Korean War; I.F. Stone’s thesis - provocation for nuclear annihilation of USSR and China.

1960 – scientist moves for danger-minimizing dialogue (e.g. International Geophysical Year, Pugwash Conferences)

1961 – Cuban Missile Crisis resolved by John Kennedy and Krushchev

1963 – partial test ban treaty

1967 – allegedly nuclear attack launched on Cairo but called off at the last minute (the Israelis blamed Egypt for Israeli attack on the USS Liberty); Israel got nuclear weapons with US and UK help.

1969 – Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT; nuclear states to decrease weapons and non-nuclear to forgo the option; Israel, India, Pakistan would not sign).

1972 – Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement (SALT)

1975 – India and Pakistani nuclearization; US and USSR still not reducing & development of Multiple Independently-Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs)

1988 Intermediate range Nuclear Forces treaty (i.e. a whole category of weapons banned)

1990 – Berlin Wall came down and fall of Communism in Eastern Europe; USSR could not keep up with Star Wars ABM, anti-ABM, anti-anti-ABM madness.

1998- India and Pakistani nuclear tests.

2001 – Bush “elected”; withdrew from ABM Treaty ; US nuclear trade with non-NPT India; opposes Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; ignores Outer Space Treaty; Reliable Warhead Replacement Program violates the spirit of the NPT; US backs non-NPT nuclear states (Israel, Pakistan, India).

2007 – N Korean test (may be now resolved); acute threats to Iran; 27,000 war heads world-wide (26,000 between Russia and US); numerous past military and civilian nuclear accidents; since 1988 96 US war-head accidents [the least of it – DU use (banned by Australia and the EU) has littered Kosovo, Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon with DU radioactive waste in contempt of humanity].

xvi. Consequences of nuclear war

Armageddon practised daily i.e. planes in the air, radar signals to initiate countdown to rapid response; 50 1 megaton weapons = 50 x 4 million = 200 million deaths – yet 27,000 weapons.

Consequences – initial deaths of hundreds of millions; hundreds of millions more from radiation fallout; hundreds of millions more die from EMP- and devastation-induced disruption; NUCLEAR WINTER will finish the job – most of 6.5 billion will die. Remember: 4,000 Sv lethal; ONE 15 megaton H bomb in the Marshall Islands yielded 2,000 mSv doses with consequent deadly cancer effects.

Who have the bombs? About 50% of Americans deny Darwinian evolution, believe in the short-term inevitability of Armageddon and consequent “rapturing up” of the “saved” i.e. they are “mad” in the commonly accepted meaning of the word (see Richard Dawkins’ “The God delusion”).


The class will discuss solutions e.g. Dr Tillman Ruff (Medical Association for the Prevention of War, Melbourne) says that the technical problem of nuclear disarmament has been solved: “A large body of authoritative reports from the 1996 Canberra Commission, to the 2006 Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, describe how, through a series of binding, timebound, irreversible steps, nuclear weapons can be abolished. There are no insurmountable technical or legal obstacles. What is lacking is visionary leadership and the groundswell of irresistible pressure from mobilised citizens to make it happen.” (see “Abolishing weapons of terror”: ) . Zero tolerance for ANY civilian targeting mass murder and those complicit in such systems; Australia should dissociate itself from US nuclear terrorism (leads world in laser-enrichment; intimately linked to US nuclear terror system through ANZUS, port facilities, Pine Gap and other surveillance, military cooperation, “lackey Australia”; individual and collective Sanctions and Boycotts against nuclear terrorist states (US, Russia, UK, France, China, Pakistan, India, Israel) and their inter-national and intra-national supporters; educating children and society in general; International Nuclear Weapons Convention; NAMING of politicians threatening the lives of our children and grandchildren who have nothing to fear form the “yellow hordes” but everything to fear from US etc nuclear terrorism.


i. Avoidable mortality (excess death)

Avoidable mortality (technically, excess mortality) is defined as the DIFFERENCE between the ACTUAL deaths in a country over a given period and the deaths EXPECTED for a peaceful, decently run country with the same demographics.

Avoidable mortality is thus a very useful bottom-line measure of the success or otherwise of social, regional and global policies.

Using detailed UN Population Division demographic data I have calculated the avoidable mortality for every country in the world since 1950 in 5-year periods (pentades). The results are horrendous but have been corroborated by independent calculations of the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality for every country in the world since 1950 (see: “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: and ).

The big picture is as follows: the 1950-2005 avoidable mortality has totalled 1.3 billion for the world, 1.2 billion for the non-European world and 0.6 billion for the Muslim world – a Muslim Holocaust 100 times greater than the WW2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) or the WW2 man-made Bengal Famine in British-ruled India (4 million victims; 1941-1951 demographic deficit 10 million; regional deaths associated with famine in Bengal and adjoining states of Bihar, Orissa and Assam: 6-7 million according to Dr Sanjoy Bhattacharya of the Wellcome Institute, University College, London; essentially deleted from British history) (see: BBC transcript of “The Bengal Famine”: ; ABC transcipt of “Bengali Famine”: ; “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 1998): ).

These horrendous figures are consonant with the post-1950 under-5 infant mortality which has totalled about 0.88 billion for the world, 0.85 billion for the non-European world and about 0.4 billion for the Muslim world.

Publicly-accessible UN data indicate that the post-invasion avoidable mortality (excess mortality) in the Occupied Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan Territories now totals about 0.3, 1.5-2 and 3-6 million, respectively, while the corresponding post-invasion under-5 infant mortality now totals 0.2, 0.6 and 2.3 million, respectively (see Senate Inquiry submission #112: However Anglo-American mainstream media will simply NOT report this important humanitarian information.

According to the 2006 UNICEF report, in 2004 the under-5 infant mortality was 122,000 in Occupied Iraq, 359,000 in Occupied Afghanistan and 1,000 in the occupying country Australia (noting that in 2004 the populations of these countries were 28.1 million, 28.6 million and 19.9 million, respectively)(see:

According to the 2007 UNICEF report, in 2005 the under-5 infant mortality was 122,000 in Occupied Iraq, 370,000 in Occupied Afghanistan and 2,000 in the occupying country Australia (noting that in 2005 the populations of these countries were 28.8 million, 29.9 million and 20.2 million, respectively)(see:

About 1,300 under-5 year old infants will have died in Occupied Iraq and Afghanistan on Christmas Day alone, 0.5 million will die in the coming year and 2.9 million have died post-invasion due to non-provision by the US-led Coalition of life-preserving requisites demanded by the Geneva Conventions (see:

Detailed, formal complaints have been sent to the International Criminal Court charging the Coalition with war crimes in Occupied Iraq and Afghanistan (see:

From a humanitarian standpoint the bottom-line is that our PRACTICAL REGARD for others diminishes as we go from our children, to community, nation and thence to distant foreigners. FOREIGN OCCUPATION simply ensures a INCREASED DISREGARD of the Ruler for the for the Ruled.

From a scientific standpoint, we cannot ignore the data if we are to find sensible solutions to global problems. History ignored yields history repeated. A checklist of things the PERPETRATOR COUNTRY MUST DO in relation to causation of huge avoidable mortality is summarized by the acronym CAAAA (C4A): Cessation; Acknowledgement; Apology; Amends; Acceptance/Assertion that it will never be repeated. The Germans have done CAAAA in relation to the Jewish Holocaust; the Queen has Acknowledged the Amritsar massacre; Tony Blair has Acknowledged and Apologized for the Irish Famine.

Fundamentally, peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. We are obliged to INFORM OTHERS and to otherwise act ETHICALLY in relation to mass mortality.

Avoidable mortality is fundamentally due to violence, deprivation, disease and lying. Intolerance of dishonesty, bigotry and violence, respect for human rights, international law and our common environment and commitment to truth and a modestly decent life for everyone will end the global avoidable mortality holocaust and ensure that it will never be repeated.

ii. Some relevant quotations.

“Over the expanse of five continents throughout the coming years an endless struggle is going to be pursued between violence and friendly persuasion, a struggle in which, granted, the former has a thousand times the chances of success than that of the latter. But I have always held that, if he who bases his hopes on human nature is a fool, he who gives up in the face of circumstances is a coward. And henceforth, the only honorable course will be to stake everything on a formidable gamble: that words are more powerful than munitions.”

Albert Camus in Neither Victims nor Executioners (1946)

“Article 55. To the fullest extent of the means available to it, the Occupying Power has the duty of ensuring the food and medical supplies of the population; it should, in particular, bring in the necessary foodstuffs, medical stores and other articles if the resources of the occupied territory are inadequate …

Article 56. To the fullest extent of the means available to it, the Occupying Power has the duty of ensuring and maintaining , with the cooperation of the national and local authorities, the medical and hospital establishments and services, public health and hygiene in the occupied territory, with particular reference to the adoption and application of the prophylactic and preventive measures necessary to combat the spread of contagious diseases and epidemics. Medical personnel of all categories shall be allowed to carry out their duties …”

Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (1950)

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”

American Declaration of Independence (1776)

“… consider the dreadful nature of the suspicions you have entertained. What have you been judging from? Remember the country and the age in which we live. Remember that we are English, that we are Christians. Consult your own understanding, your own sense of the probable, your own observation of what is passing around you. Does our education prepare us for such atrocities? Do our laws connive at them? Could they be perpetrated without being known, in a country like this, where social and literary intercourse is on such a footing, where every man is surrounded by a neighbourhood of voluntary spies, and where roads and newspapers lay everything open?”

Henry Tilney to Catherine Morland in Northanger Abbey by Jane Austen

“We have come into this world to accept it, not merely to know it. We may become powerful through knowledge, but we attain fullness through sympathy.”

Rabindranath Tagore quoted in Moloch by Henry Miller

iii. Some major features.

1. Introduction – global avoidable mortality – an overview: 1950-2005 excess deaths 1.3 billion on Spaceship Earth with the First World in charge of the flight deck; currently annual excess deaths 16 million (9.5 million under-5 year old infants) i.e. 44,000 daily (26,000 infant daily).

2. Global post-1950 excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality – for detailed tables of data see APPENDIX and see “Body Count. Gloabal avoidable mortality since 1950” by Gideon Polya.

3. Correlates and causes of post-1950 avoidable global mass mortality; occupation and quantitating racism – excess death is directly proportional to the amount of Occupation; the countries with the lowest excess death are the biggest Occupiers (US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, Western Europe); the countries with greatest excess death have the greatest burden of Occupation (Africa, Near East, South Asia, South East Asia, Pacific).

4. Country-by-country analysis of avoidable mortality in European countries; the WW2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) and the WW2 Holocaust (30 million Slavic, Jewish and Roma victims); low post-1950 excess death in Western countries; Western Europe better than Eastern Europe; unusual post-1960 elevated excess death in many Eastern European countries.

5. Latin America and the Caribbean – from European invasion, disease, genocide and slavery to US hegemony; Cuba’s remarkable achievements of good governance, low infant mortality, and high literacy despite US sanctions.

6. North Africa, Asia & Pacific – the horrendous impact of slavery, colonialism, neo-colonialism and war; key examples of Australia, the Pacific and the “History Wars”; British India and famine (British ruled India associated with 1.5 billion excess deaths); post-WW2 conflicts; Palestine/Israel; Iraq and Afghanistan

7. Non-Arab Africa – slavery, colonialism, neo-colonialism, US hegemony, militarism, debt, economic constraint and incompetence; First World PC racism; incompetent government, HIV-AIDS, and malaria.

8. Synthesis, causes, conclusions and suggestions - the global avoidable mortality holocaust is primarily caused by violence, deprivation, disease and LYING; violent versus non-violent death; the ruler is responsible for the ruled; passive genocide, active genocide, famine, disease, occupation, high technology war, economic constraint, excuses for war, feminist perspective, media lying, suggestions on how to avoid mass mortality. The key solutions involve zero tolerance from lying and spin; new media and social empowerment mechanisms; inflexible respect for wild nature; and rational risk management.


The class will discuss possible solutions e.g. informing everyone i.e. applying the Rational Risk Management protocol of (a) accurate data, (b) scientific analysis and (c) informed systemic change; global economic efficiency “credits” system (or a few percent tax on global GDP) would give countries like Bangladesh an annual per capita income of about $1,000 - $2,000 to allow a Cuban-style situation of low infant mortality, good governance, high female literacy, low excess death and counter-intuitive population control (economic and survival security lowers birth rate); urgent population control; recognition of the Climate Emergency that is ALREADY making things worse.


i. I would urge the students of this course to personally humanize the avoidable mortality statistics with reference to their own experience of immediate family, the wider community and of people around the world.

ii. Edmund Burke famously stated that evil occurs because of good men doing nothing. Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. We cannot walk by on the other side. We can all do something immediately by informing others.

iii. We can act through ethical dealings (e.g. via sanctions, boycotts, disinvestment, ethical investment, green investment) in relation to people, corporations and countries contributing to the horrendous global avoidable mortality holocaust and the looming Climate genocide.

iv. The global avoidable mortality holocaust is fundamentally due to (a) violence, (b) deprivation, (c) disease and (d) LYING:

(a) We should be rigorously pacifist (there is no reason for war in the 21st century; there must be zero tolerance for war-mongers.

(b) A minimum Cuban style existence for all (e.g. annual infant mortality for Cuba and the US is the same, 0.17%) is achievable NOW with a focussed “tax” of a few percent of global GDP for infrastructure, agriculture, education, birth control and coupled with good governance, good primary health care and high female literacy (with counter-intuitive population control).

(c). Basic good primary health care for all based on a Spaceship Earth with collective mutual responsibility.

(d). Zero tolerance for real racism, PC racism, lying and spin; expose and eschew lying media and politicians and apparatchiks; Internet-based alternative media.

(e) Urgent population control (as achieved in China through good governance and through prosperity in Europe)

v. Greater public voice and participation for scientific organizations insisting on rational risk management – the media and politicians are a proven disaster; national and international scientific organizations (like councils of elders) must have a greater say (WE can give them that greater say by eschewing the liars, warmongers,, war criminals and climate criminals).

vi. The Climate Emergency (a looming economic disaster for the First World according to Sir Nicholas Stern, over 6 billion victim genocide for the Third World this century according to Proessor James Lovelock FRS) demands a new relationship between scientists and society. The scientists can’t rule but they must and can insist on a major say in society through “new media” in the Western Murdochracies in particular.

vii. The sustainability view of Indigenous People must prevail. Now Science is urgently telling us that we must preserve what is left of Wild Nature. We must insist on a new ethic of no more extinctions (e.g. the Great Barrier Reef will disappear at greater than 450 ppm CO2 – it is already 383 ppm and increasing at 2.5 ppm per year). We must say NO to the Bush-ite and neo-Bush-ite New Barbarian Climate Criminals who are threatening the World with Climate Genocide and Terracide.


Agee, P. (1975), Inside the Company CIA Diary (Penguin, London).

Ali, T. (2002), The Clash on the Fundamentalisms. Crusades, Jihads and Modernity (Verso, London)

Balmford et al. (2002), Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature, Science 9 August 2002: 950; see:

Blum, W. (2006), Rogue State (Zed Books, London)

Chalk, F. & Jonassohn, K. (1990), The History and Sociology of Genocide. Analyses and Case Studies (Yale University Press, New Haven)

Diamond, J. (1997), Guns, Germs and Steel. The Fates of Human Societies (Jonathan Cape, London)

Drakulić, S. (2004), They Would Never Hurt a Fly. War Criminals on Trial in The Hague (Abacus, London)

Gore, A. (2007) The Assault on Reason (Bloomsbury, London)

Hitchens, C. (2001), The Trial of Henry Kissinger (Text, Melbourne)

Lindqvist, S. (1992), Exterminate All the Brutes (Granta Books, London, 2002)

Lovelock, J. (2006), The Revenge of Gaia. Why the Earth is fighting back and we can still save humanity (Allen Lane, London).

Mason, C. (2000), A Short History of Asia Macmillan, London)

Orwell, G. (1949), 1984 (Signet, New York, 1950)

Perkins, J. (2005), Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (Ebury Press, London).

Pilger, J. (2002), The New Rulers of the World (Verso, London)

Polya, G.M. (1998), Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History (Polya, Melbourne)

Polya, G.M. (2003), Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds. A pharmacological reference guide to sites of action and biological effects (Taylor & Francis, New York & London)

Polya, G.M. (2007), Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950 (G.M. Polya, Melbourne) (see: and ).

Polya, G.M. (2004-2008), Blogs (Body Count; global avoidable mortality; Jane Austen and; Climate Emergency, Sustainability Emergency; Thou shalt not kill children; Rudd Australia Report Cards:

Polya, G.M. (2005-2008), Essays on MWC News:

Reason, J. (2000), Human error: models and management, British Medical Journal, vol. 320, pp768-770

Roy, A. (1999), The Cost of Living (Modern Library, New York)

Snow, C.P. (1961), Science and Government (The New English Library, London)

Watts, S. (1997), Epidemics and History. Disease, Power and Imperialism (Yale University Press, New Haven)


I do a lot of anti-racism, humanitarian writing around the world, but my words and those of like-minded persons have evidently FAILED ( 2 million Occupied Palestinian children are still held abusively in Apartheid Israel’s Occupied Palestinian Territory Concentration Camp, the Iraqi Genocide, the Afghan Genocide, the Australian Aboriginal Genocide are proceeding unabated and Climate Genocide has already commenced and is set to increase catastrophically – while the World simply looks on).

I have recently adopted a new approach and have been painting HUGE paintings for Peace and for respect for Mother and Child: (please feel free to use these images with attribution and send the links to your friends!): Deep Mind: ; Genes and Memes: (both of these relating to Mind and Humanism), Apocalypse Now (see: ), Jerusalem Madonna (Muslim, Renaissance Italian, Byzantine Orthodox, aboriginal, abstract expressionist fusion): , Manhattan Madonna ( a memorial for 9/11) : , Rosanna Madonna: , Scheherazade (for Women’s Rights) : / , Sydney Madonna (for Mother and Child and Indigenous Rights) : , Truelove: , Melbourne Madonna: , Qana (inspired by Pablo Picasso’s anti-war masterpiece “Guernica”: , Isfahan Matisse: , Alhambra Pollock: , Terra: and Bundoora Arabesque: .


Table 2.1 Post-1950 global excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality



























Overseas Europe











Western Europe











Eastern Europe











Latin America & Caribbean











East Asia











Central Asia, Iran & Turkey











Arab North Africa & Middle East











South East Asia






















South Asia











Non-Arab Africa












































Abbreviations: EM, total 1950-2005 (mid-1950-mid-2005) excess mortality; IM, total 1950-2005 under-5 infant mortality; LE, life expectancy at birth (UNICEF, 2003); MORT, total 1950-2005 mortality; POP, 2005 population; m, million.

Notes. Overseas Europe includes Australia, Canada, Israel, New Zealand, Puerto Rico, USA and US Virgin Islands. Armenia and Georgia as Christian countries of the former Soviet Union are included conveniently in the Eastern Europe category. Population and mortality data have been conveniently rounded-off in Tables 2.1-2.12.

From “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” by Gideon Polya (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007): (see: and ).

8.16 APPENDIX – State of the World (2003) in relation to mortality, excess mortality, under-5 infant mortality and HIV/AIDS.

Table 8.1 Global mortality, excess mortality and under-5 infant mortality (2003)





















(% )














Overseas Europe











Western Europe











Eastern Europe











Latin America & Caribbean











East Asia











Central Asia, Iran & Turkey











Arab North Africa & Middle East











South East Asia






















South Asia











Non-Arab Africa












































From “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” by Gideon Polya (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007): (see: and ).